Top Small College Football games for 10/17 & 18
Last week (10/11), with my picks on the Top Game in each of the four divisions, I was 3-1 (now 7-1, 87.5% overall). This past week, I had 26 right and 7 wrong for 78.8 percent (now 54-16, 77.1% overall). All 280 of my predictions for this weeks games can be found on the Football Gazette website [use link on the right side to get there] and then click on Don's predictions.
First, I will list the Top Game, as I see it, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday.
NCAA 1-AA Top Game
at Western Illinois (5-1) over Southern Illinois (6-0. Can Western defeat their third straight tough opponent? Having home-cooking, I think that Western will have just enough defense to hold off Southern’s explosive ground game and pull out the win. WIU 28-21.
NCAA II Top Game
at Grand Valley State (6-0) over Saginaw Valley State (6-0). What a super game this should be! Saginaw Valley has played Grand Valley close in several games these past few seasons. These two offensive powers also have more than adequate defenses. I think It will come down to the final minutes of play before being decided. Grand Valley did lose their all-American quarterback and wide receiver to graduation, but, they have reloaded well. I believe that GVSU has the slightly better defense too. Grand Valley State 27-24. I hope to be at this game after attending the Hope College afternoon game.
NCAA III Top Game
at Wartburg (5-0) over Simpson (5-0). Simpson, always a contender, with a consistently good program, will give Wartburg their toughest test so far this season. However, as strong a team as Simpson has, Wartburg has a great team, that I think, could advance far in the D-III playoffs this fall. I will stick with Wartburg at home, 28-14.
NAIA Top Game
Southern Oregon (1-3) over at Azusa Pacific (4-1). Both schools have lost at D-II Humboldt State, and coupled with Southern’s loss at San Diego, it would appear that any playoffs hopes are out of the question for SOU. So this game becomes SOU’s season. Azusa will need this win to stay in the playoff picture. Both teams want this game badly! I think that SOU’s running back Dusty McGrorty will make the difference. Southern Oregon, 27-17.
Other significant games in each division follow
NCAA 1-AA
at Idaho State (4-2) over Montana (5-1). I feel this is the year that Idaho State will pull off the upset win. I do not think that Montana is as strong as their record indicates, and Idaho State has been playing very good football. I’m sticking my neck out on this one, and will take ISU at home, 17-14.
Yale (4-0) over at Colgate (6-0). This is a tough game to evaluate. They both have portrayed superior offenses and good defenses. It’s my hunch that Yale will go into Colgate’s stadium and pull out the win. Yale 20-14.
at Bethune-Cookman (5-1) over South Carolina State (4-2). After Bethune-Cookman’s upset loss to Margan State a couple of weeks ago, it seems they have righted themselves once again, and are ready to roll. South Carolina State is a rising star, and have been playing much better than at the start of the season. I don’t think that SCSU will be able to pull off the upset win though. I’ll take Bethune-Cookman 30-14.
at Florida Atlantic (5-2) over Northern Colorado (5-1). In Northern Colorado’s first year in 1-AA, they are having a great season. This game could go either way as far as I’m concerned. UNC has an established program and might be too strong for Florida Atlantic, but I think Florida Atlantic will come ready to play. Florida Atlantic 23-17.
NCAA 1-AA Mid-Major
Albany (4-2) over at Monmouth NJ (6-0). Monmouth has shown they can win the close ones, but can they defeat an always strong Albany team. My presumption is that Albany will be too strong for Monmouth to grasp the win in this one. On the road, Albany will win 21-17.
at Robert Morris (5-1) over Sacred Heart (5-1). This game will go down to the wire. Robert Morris looks like they are back on track, after spending a few years on the down side. Sacred Heart is coming off a super year in 2002 and would like to repeat that performance again this year. At home, for a much improved Robert Morris team, I’ll take RMU 28-24.
San Diego (5-1) over at Valparaiso (4-3). Valparaiso is coming off a huge win at Dayton, and San Diego defeated Drake last week. With a prolific scoring machine in quarterback Eric Rasmussen, who has helped San Diego win some close ones, by the narrowest of margins in a few games, will be the catalyst to put USD over the top in this game. San Diego’s only loss was to NAIA power Azusa Pacific. Valparaiso started slow, but is really coming on now. I think San Diego can squeak by with another win on the road, 45-41.
NCAA II
Bentley (6-0) over at Southern Connecticut (5-1) (Note: Friday night game). This will be Bentley’s second very strong test. They defeated C.W. Post earlier this year in a close one, while Southern Connecticut got destroyed by C.W. Post earlier this fall. This should be a road win for Bentley, 28-14. Could be by an even wider margin of victory though.
at Delta State (5-1) over Southern Arkansas (4-2). Both schools are having exceptional seasons, but neither can catch up to North Alabama and Valdosta State. At home I will stick with Delta State, 24-14.
Tarleton State (4-2) over at Southeastern Oklahoma State (5-1). Southeastern has managed to put points on the board when it was needed, and Tarleton State has a very good offense. The winner of this game could very well be the North Division winner of the Lone Star Conference. In my opinion, Tarleton State will once again win the North Division, and in this game defeat Southeastern, 33-16.
at Midwestern State (4-2) over Eastern New Mexico (5-1). Eastern usually starts out having a great season, but for some reason they customarily falter in the mid-to-late season games. Midwestern has a very explosive offense and at home should win, 28-14.
at Pittsburg State (6-0) over Emporia State (5-1). Emporia State suffered their first loss last week to traditional D-II power Northwest Missouri State 16-13. This is an arch-rival game. The disappointment for ESU in their home game loss to Northwest Missouri, may have a bearing on the outcome of this game. Pittsburg State looks like they have a very good playoff caliber team. I’ll stick with Pitt State at home, 27-13.
at North Dakota State (5-1) over North Dakota (5-1). This is another arch-rival game with major implications attached to the outcome. You can throw the book out the window on this one. Very seldom is this game not a super brawl. The winner of this has the inside track to the conference title and automatic bid to the D-II playoffs. NDSU is coming off a big win over Nebraska-Omaha, and baring a letdown, I think they will put up more points than North Dakota. NDSU 28-24.
Northern State (5-1) over at Concordia-St. Paul (5-1). Both schools are shooting for the conference title and automatic playoff bid in this one. Concordia has had some outstanding teams lately, and have pulled off some big wins too, but there always seems to be one conference team that keeps them from the conference title each year. Northern State came out of nowhere this year, and have been dominating everyone. I will have to take Northern State on the road in this one, 28-21.
at East Stroudsburg (3-2) over Mansfield (6-0). This is the best team that I can remember Mansfield ever having. It would be nice if they completed an undefeated regular season with a conference title to boot, but I have my doubts about that. East Stroudsburg has not lived up to expectations this year, but I think they will pull off the upset here. ESU, 21-12.
NCAA III
at Johns Hopkins (6-0) over Gettysburg (4-1). (Note: This is a Friday night game) Surprising Gettysburg defeated perennial Centenial Conference power McDaniel 30-20 last week, while Johns Hopkins put the hurts to Franklin & Marshall, 37-14. It has been awhile since Gettysburg has had as good a team as this one. Johns Hopkins has been on the verge, the last few years, of springing into the limelight with a very strong team, looks to be their year. One has to take a fall, and I believe it will be Gettysburg. Johns Hopkins defense will be too powerful for Gettysburg in my opinion, yet this should be a great game to attend. I like Johns Hopkins, 21-10.
Brockport State (6-0) over at Ithaca (4-1). It is tough for any school to have an unbeaten season, and this might be the first loss for Brockport State, however, Ithaca was demolished by Springfield a few weeks ago, but I still think this game really could go either way. I like Brockport’s chances here, and by a slim 21-17 I pick them to win.
Elmhurst (4-1) over at Millikin (4-1). Both schools only loss was at D-III power Wheaton. Elmhurst lost 23-19 and Millikin fell last week 45-29. Under their second year offensive coordinator, Tim Lester, Elmhurst has shown improvement in the last couple of years. This will be a confrontation of two improving programs that still feel they have a chance at the conference crown this year. Wheaton still has to travel to old nemesis Augustana for their final regular-season game, and next week they are home for always dangerous Illinois Wesleyan. So the conference title still is on the line. I’ll take the surprising Elmhurst squad in this one, on the road, 23-14.
at Hope (3-2) over Adrian (5-0). This is another game I plan on seeing this Saturday. Hope plays at 2 est and Grand Valley at 7 est, with both schools very close to each other, I should have no problem navigating from Holland to Allendale in time for Grand Valley's game. Adrian has been a surprise to me, and they are coming off a demolishing of Tri-State. Hope’s last game was a narrow win over previously unbeaten Kalamazoo. I think Hope is ready to pull off another upset. Hope, 21-17.
at Lycoming (4-0) over Delaware Valley (4-1). Delaware Valley had their bubble burst last week by King’s, 35-23, and Lycoming is looking like their old-time self this year. I think Lycoming will have too much offense and defense for Delaware Valley. Lycoming 28-7.
at Westfield State (4-1) over Bridgewater State (4-0). Westfield State, the defending New England Football Conference champs, Bogan Division, will give Bridgewater State their first loss of the year. Westfield State 34-17.
Curry (6-0) over at Nichols College (4-2). This will be a great game to see. Both teams have more than adequate defenses, and it should be a rather low-scoring game. Nichols will be dangerous at home, but I think Curry’s defense can stop them enough to pull out the win. Curry 21-14.
at Amherst (3-1) over Wesleyan (3-1). Both these schools have good football teams almost every year. Amherst is coming off a 31-0 win over a good Colby team, and Wesleyan just managed to sneak by Bates 23-20. In my opinion, Amherst has the stronger team, and being at home should roll. Amherst 28-7.
at Mount Union (5-0) over John Carroll (4-1). On paper this looks like a close game, but Mount Union is much too strong for John Carroll to put up much of a challenge. However, I do think John Carroll will be able to put a few points on the board. Mount Union, 45-20.
at Wisconsin-Stevens Point (3-2) over Wisconsin-Eau Claire (3-2). The Wisconsin Conference has at least four or five caliber playoff teams this year, but they keep defeating each other and will probably finish the season with just one team making the playoffs. At the beginning of the season, I liked Eau Claire’s chances for winning the conference, but at this point in the season I feel that Stevens Point is a little stronger. That said, Eau Claire is coming off an upset win at home over La Crosse, 24-21, while Stevens Point fell at home to Stout, 37-27. In this topsy-turvy conference race, I’ll go with Stevens Point this week, 23-21.
at Wisconsin-La Crosse (4-1) over Wisconsin-Oshkosh (4-1). Oshkosh was dealt their first loss last week by Platteville 20-17, and as previously mentioned, La Crosse was upset by Eau Claire. Well, as tough as it is to pick a winner in this conference, I think La Crosse still is taking aim to win the conference title, which right now has Eau Claire and surprising Whitewater tied for the conference lead with 2-0 marks. La Crosse will win 35-14.
at Wisconsin-Stout (3-2) over Wisconsin-Whitewater (4-1). Stout, another of my pre-season conference favorites, lost a close one to D-III power Bethel MN, 45-42 in their opening season game, but last week won at Stevens Point, 37-27. Whitewater has been the most surprising team in the conference to me, and last week at home defeated River Falls, 32-28. I believe that Stout will knock Whitewater from the conference lead this week at home. Stout, 28-17.
NAIA
at MidAmerica Nazarene (7-0) over Benedictine (5-1). It’s nice for MidAmerica to have Benedictine at their place this week. This will be a great hard fought football game. Both teams are very strong. I think this is the year for MidAmerica to win the conference title outright. MidAmerica’s defense will prove the difference in this one. MidAmerica 21-17.
Georgetown KY (5-1) over at Lambuth (4-2). The rest of the schools in the Mid-South conference still have not caught up with Georgetown. However, this should be one of the more competitive games for Georgetown this season. I like Georgetown 24-10.
McKendree (5-0) over at St. Xavier (4-2). I keep expecting St. Xavier to break up the stranglehold that McKendree and St. Ambrose have on the Western Division of the Mid-States Conference. It hasn’t happened yet, but it will. McKendree simply runs the ball with such proficient abandon that it's tough for their opponents to get their offense on the field. St. Xavier needs to get the lead in this one, and they have the air-attack to accomplish it, but I still think that McKendree’s defense will put a damper on the St. Xavier offense just enough to win 28-21.
First, I will list the Top Game, as I see it, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday.
NCAA 1-AA Top Game
at Western Illinois (5-1) over Southern Illinois (6-0. Can Western defeat their third straight tough opponent? Having home-cooking, I think that Western will have just enough defense to hold off Southern’s explosive ground game and pull out the win. WIU 28-21.
NCAA II Top Game
at Grand Valley State (6-0) over Saginaw Valley State (6-0). What a super game this should be! Saginaw Valley has played Grand Valley close in several games these past few seasons. These two offensive powers also have more than adequate defenses. I think It will come down to the final minutes of play before being decided. Grand Valley did lose their all-American quarterback and wide receiver to graduation, but, they have reloaded well. I believe that GVSU has the slightly better defense too. Grand Valley State 27-24. I hope to be at this game after attending the Hope College afternoon game.
NCAA III Top Game
at Wartburg (5-0) over Simpson (5-0). Simpson, always a contender, with a consistently good program, will give Wartburg their toughest test so far this season. However, as strong a team as Simpson has, Wartburg has a great team, that I think, could advance far in the D-III playoffs this fall. I will stick with Wartburg at home, 28-14.
NAIA Top Game
Southern Oregon (1-3) over at Azusa Pacific (4-1). Both schools have lost at D-II Humboldt State, and coupled with Southern’s loss at San Diego, it would appear that any playoffs hopes are out of the question for SOU. So this game becomes SOU’s season. Azusa will need this win to stay in the playoff picture. Both teams want this game badly! I think that SOU’s running back Dusty McGrorty will make the difference. Southern Oregon, 27-17.
Other significant games in each division follow
NCAA 1-AA
at Idaho State (4-2) over Montana (5-1). I feel this is the year that Idaho State will pull off the upset win. I do not think that Montana is as strong as their record indicates, and Idaho State has been playing very good football. I’m sticking my neck out on this one, and will take ISU at home, 17-14.
Yale (4-0) over at Colgate (6-0). This is a tough game to evaluate. They both have portrayed superior offenses and good defenses. It’s my hunch that Yale will go into Colgate’s stadium and pull out the win. Yale 20-14.
at Bethune-Cookman (5-1) over South Carolina State (4-2). After Bethune-Cookman’s upset loss to Margan State a couple of weeks ago, it seems they have righted themselves once again, and are ready to roll. South Carolina State is a rising star, and have been playing much better than at the start of the season. I don’t think that SCSU will be able to pull off the upset win though. I’ll take Bethune-Cookman 30-14.
at Florida Atlantic (5-2) over Northern Colorado (5-1). In Northern Colorado’s first year in 1-AA, they are having a great season. This game could go either way as far as I’m concerned. UNC has an established program and might be too strong for Florida Atlantic, but I think Florida Atlantic will come ready to play. Florida Atlantic 23-17.
NCAA 1-AA Mid-Major
Albany (4-2) over at Monmouth NJ (6-0). Monmouth has shown they can win the close ones, but can they defeat an always strong Albany team. My presumption is that Albany will be too strong for Monmouth to grasp the win in this one. On the road, Albany will win 21-17.
at Robert Morris (5-1) over Sacred Heart (5-1). This game will go down to the wire. Robert Morris looks like they are back on track, after spending a few years on the down side. Sacred Heart is coming off a super year in 2002 and would like to repeat that performance again this year. At home, for a much improved Robert Morris team, I’ll take RMU 28-24.
San Diego (5-1) over at Valparaiso (4-3). Valparaiso is coming off a huge win at Dayton, and San Diego defeated Drake last week. With a prolific scoring machine in quarterback Eric Rasmussen, who has helped San Diego win some close ones, by the narrowest of margins in a few games, will be the catalyst to put USD over the top in this game. San Diego’s only loss was to NAIA power Azusa Pacific. Valparaiso started slow, but is really coming on now. I think San Diego can squeak by with another win on the road, 45-41.
NCAA II
Bentley (6-0) over at Southern Connecticut (5-1) (Note: Friday night game). This will be Bentley’s second very strong test. They defeated C.W. Post earlier this year in a close one, while Southern Connecticut got destroyed by C.W. Post earlier this fall. This should be a road win for Bentley, 28-14. Could be by an even wider margin of victory though.
at Delta State (5-1) over Southern Arkansas (4-2). Both schools are having exceptional seasons, but neither can catch up to North Alabama and Valdosta State. At home I will stick with Delta State, 24-14.
Tarleton State (4-2) over at Southeastern Oklahoma State (5-1). Southeastern has managed to put points on the board when it was needed, and Tarleton State has a very good offense. The winner of this game could very well be the North Division winner of the Lone Star Conference. In my opinion, Tarleton State will once again win the North Division, and in this game defeat Southeastern, 33-16.
at Midwestern State (4-2) over Eastern New Mexico (5-1). Eastern usually starts out having a great season, but for some reason they customarily falter in the mid-to-late season games. Midwestern has a very explosive offense and at home should win, 28-14.
at Pittsburg State (6-0) over Emporia State (5-1). Emporia State suffered their first loss last week to traditional D-II power Northwest Missouri State 16-13. This is an arch-rival game. The disappointment for ESU in their home game loss to Northwest Missouri, may have a bearing on the outcome of this game. Pittsburg State looks like they have a very good playoff caliber team. I’ll stick with Pitt State at home, 27-13.
at North Dakota State (5-1) over North Dakota (5-1). This is another arch-rival game with major implications attached to the outcome. You can throw the book out the window on this one. Very seldom is this game not a super brawl. The winner of this has the inside track to the conference title and automatic bid to the D-II playoffs. NDSU is coming off a big win over Nebraska-Omaha, and baring a letdown, I think they will put up more points than North Dakota. NDSU 28-24.
Northern State (5-1) over at Concordia-St. Paul (5-1). Both schools are shooting for the conference title and automatic playoff bid in this one. Concordia has had some outstanding teams lately, and have pulled off some big wins too, but there always seems to be one conference team that keeps them from the conference title each year. Northern State came out of nowhere this year, and have been dominating everyone. I will have to take Northern State on the road in this one, 28-21.
at East Stroudsburg (3-2) over Mansfield (6-0). This is the best team that I can remember Mansfield ever having. It would be nice if they completed an undefeated regular season with a conference title to boot, but I have my doubts about that. East Stroudsburg has not lived up to expectations this year, but I think they will pull off the upset here. ESU, 21-12.
NCAA III
at Johns Hopkins (6-0) over Gettysburg (4-1). (Note: This is a Friday night game) Surprising Gettysburg defeated perennial Centenial Conference power McDaniel 30-20 last week, while Johns Hopkins put the hurts to Franklin & Marshall, 37-14. It has been awhile since Gettysburg has had as good a team as this one. Johns Hopkins has been on the verge, the last few years, of springing into the limelight with a very strong team, looks to be their year. One has to take a fall, and I believe it will be Gettysburg. Johns Hopkins defense will be too powerful for Gettysburg in my opinion, yet this should be a great game to attend. I like Johns Hopkins, 21-10.
Brockport State (6-0) over at Ithaca (4-1). It is tough for any school to have an unbeaten season, and this might be the first loss for Brockport State, however, Ithaca was demolished by Springfield a few weeks ago, but I still think this game really could go either way. I like Brockport’s chances here, and by a slim 21-17 I pick them to win.
Elmhurst (4-1) over at Millikin (4-1). Both schools only loss was at D-III power Wheaton. Elmhurst lost 23-19 and Millikin fell last week 45-29. Under their second year offensive coordinator, Tim Lester, Elmhurst has shown improvement in the last couple of years. This will be a confrontation of two improving programs that still feel they have a chance at the conference crown this year. Wheaton still has to travel to old nemesis Augustana for their final regular-season game, and next week they are home for always dangerous Illinois Wesleyan. So the conference title still is on the line. I’ll take the surprising Elmhurst squad in this one, on the road, 23-14.
at Hope (3-2) over Adrian (5-0). This is another game I plan on seeing this Saturday. Hope plays at 2 est and Grand Valley at 7 est, with both schools very close to each other, I should have no problem navigating from Holland to Allendale in time for Grand Valley's game. Adrian has been a surprise to me, and they are coming off a demolishing of Tri-State. Hope’s last game was a narrow win over previously unbeaten Kalamazoo. I think Hope is ready to pull off another upset. Hope, 21-17.
at Lycoming (4-0) over Delaware Valley (4-1). Delaware Valley had their bubble burst last week by King’s, 35-23, and Lycoming is looking like their old-time self this year. I think Lycoming will have too much offense and defense for Delaware Valley. Lycoming 28-7.
at Westfield State (4-1) over Bridgewater State (4-0). Westfield State, the defending New England Football Conference champs, Bogan Division, will give Bridgewater State their first loss of the year. Westfield State 34-17.
Curry (6-0) over at Nichols College (4-2). This will be a great game to see. Both teams have more than adequate defenses, and it should be a rather low-scoring game. Nichols will be dangerous at home, but I think Curry’s defense can stop them enough to pull out the win. Curry 21-14.
at Amherst (3-1) over Wesleyan (3-1). Both these schools have good football teams almost every year. Amherst is coming off a 31-0 win over a good Colby team, and Wesleyan just managed to sneak by Bates 23-20. In my opinion, Amherst has the stronger team, and being at home should roll. Amherst 28-7.
at Mount Union (5-0) over John Carroll (4-1). On paper this looks like a close game, but Mount Union is much too strong for John Carroll to put up much of a challenge. However, I do think John Carroll will be able to put a few points on the board. Mount Union, 45-20.
at Wisconsin-Stevens Point (3-2) over Wisconsin-Eau Claire (3-2). The Wisconsin Conference has at least four or five caliber playoff teams this year, but they keep defeating each other and will probably finish the season with just one team making the playoffs. At the beginning of the season, I liked Eau Claire’s chances for winning the conference, but at this point in the season I feel that Stevens Point is a little stronger. That said, Eau Claire is coming off an upset win at home over La Crosse, 24-21, while Stevens Point fell at home to Stout, 37-27. In this topsy-turvy conference race, I’ll go with Stevens Point this week, 23-21.
at Wisconsin-La Crosse (4-1) over Wisconsin-Oshkosh (4-1). Oshkosh was dealt their first loss last week by Platteville 20-17, and as previously mentioned, La Crosse was upset by Eau Claire. Well, as tough as it is to pick a winner in this conference, I think La Crosse still is taking aim to win the conference title, which right now has Eau Claire and surprising Whitewater tied for the conference lead with 2-0 marks. La Crosse will win 35-14.
at Wisconsin-Stout (3-2) over Wisconsin-Whitewater (4-1). Stout, another of my pre-season conference favorites, lost a close one to D-III power Bethel MN, 45-42 in their opening season game, but last week won at Stevens Point, 37-27. Whitewater has been the most surprising team in the conference to me, and last week at home defeated River Falls, 32-28. I believe that Stout will knock Whitewater from the conference lead this week at home. Stout, 28-17.
NAIA
at MidAmerica Nazarene (7-0) over Benedictine (5-1). It’s nice for MidAmerica to have Benedictine at their place this week. This will be a great hard fought football game. Both teams are very strong. I think this is the year for MidAmerica to win the conference title outright. MidAmerica’s defense will prove the difference in this one. MidAmerica 21-17.
Georgetown KY (5-1) over at Lambuth (4-2). The rest of the schools in the Mid-South conference still have not caught up with Georgetown. However, this should be one of the more competitive games for Georgetown this season. I like Georgetown 24-10.
McKendree (5-0) over at St. Xavier (4-2). I keep expecting St. Xavier to break up the stranglehold that McKendree and St. Ambrose have on the Western Division of the Mid-States Conference. It hasn’t happened yet, but it will. McKendree simply runs the ball with such proficient abandon that it's tough for their opponents to get their offense on the field. St. Xavier needs to get the lead in this one, and they have the air-attack to accomplish it, but I still think that McKendree’s defense will put a damper on the St. Xavier offense just enough to win 28-21.
posted by Don @ 10/16/2003 03:59:00 PM
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