Top Game Previews for Saturday, 11/29
All 26 of my predictions for this weeks games can be found on the Football Gazette website [use link on the right side to get there] and then click on Don's predictions.
First, I will list the Top Playoff Games, as I see them, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday. As time permits I will try to give my analysis on as many games as possible.
NCAA 1-AA Playoff Game
Southern Illinois (10-1) over at Delaware (11-1). Southern Illinois’ coach Jerry Kill, in his third season as head coach at Southern, has transformed the Salukis from doormat to champion. Coming off a 4-8 season, SIU was picked to finish sixth in the Gateway this year by the coaches and media. Instead, it tied the school record for regular-season wins with 10 and rose as high as #2 in the national polls. The #4-ranked Salukis shared the Gateway Conference title with Northern Iowa and will participate in their first I-AA playoff game in 20 years when they travel to Delaware Saturday. K.C. Keeler, 44, who was a three-year starting linebacker for the Blue Hens in 1978-80 and led the team to the NCAA Division II national title before becoming one of the nation's most successful coaches on the NCAA Division III level. Keeler led his first Blue Hen team to a record of 6-6 in 2002, including a mark of 4-5 in Atlantic 10 play for a sixth place finish. Despite a .500 record, his rookie season was anything but uneventful. The youthful Blue Hens defeated three top 15 and NCAA I-AA Tournament teams during the year (Georgia Southern, Northeastern, and Maine) and lost its six games by a combined total of just 26 points. Southern Illinois averages 273.5 yards rushing per game while Delaware is allowing just 114.2 yards a game rushing. Heading the Salukis rushing attack are two very talented running backs, senior (#32) Mo Abdulqaadir who has rushed for 954 yards and 11 touchdowns on 161 carries (5.9 avg.), while senior (#24) Tom Koutsos has picked up 941 yards and 11scores on 179 carries. SIU’s senior fullback (#25) Brandon Robinson has 72 rushes for 444 yards ((6.2 avg.) and scored three times, while also pulling in 15 receptions for 227 yards with two more touchdowns. Robinson also returns kicks, returning 13 punts for an average of 14.5 yards and 8 kickoffs for a return average of 18.1. Quarterbacking this ground attack is sophomore (#12) Joel Sambursky with 90 carries for 332 yards and six scores while also completing 102-of-180 passes for 1,561 yards and 14 scores. Sambursky’s most often used target is sophomore wide receiver (#6) Brent Little with 32 catches for 590 yards and six TDs and has returned nine kickoffs an average of 28.1 yards each. Another offensive weapon for the Salukis’ is freshman kicker (#19) Craig Coffin who has connected on 10-of-15 field goal attempts, including a long of 48 yards, and is 46-for-50 on PAT’s. Junior safety (#7) Alexis Moreland leads the team in tackles with 83, including three tackles for loss, two interceptions, two pass deflections and one blocked kick. Senior linebacker (#35) Eric Egan has 72 stops, 10 for losses, including three sacks, while sophomore linebacker (#34) Royal Whitaker has 73 stops, three for minus yardage, three interceptions and two pass breakups. Delaware is averaging 206.2 yards a game rushing and 203.2 passing. Directing the Blue Hens offensive attack is all-America candidate, senior quarterback (#12) Andy Hall with 137 carries for 630 yards and eight touchdowns, while also completing 195-of-303 passes for 2,285 yards and 21 scores. Sophomore receiver (#6) David Boler is their leading pass catcher with 45 for 518 yards and six TDs and has returned 16 kickoffs an average of 20.4 yards per return. Sophomore (#7) Brian Ingram checks in with 40 receptions for an identical 518 yards and three scores, while sophomore Justin Long has caught 40 passes for 431 yards and four touchdowns. Top rusher is senior running back (#2) Germaine Bennett with 232 carries for 1,135 yards and 12 TDs. Delaware’s leading tackler is junior linebacker (#58) Mondoe Davis with 81 hits, 5.5 for losses with four sacks. Sophomore linebacker (#44) John Mulhern has 75 stops, 7.5 tackles for loss, one interception and five pass blocks, while senior defensive lineman (#96) Shawn Johnson has contributed 54 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, 12 sacks and five pass breakups. Extremely dangerous is their junior defensive back (#47) Sidney Haugabrook with 68 tackles, 2 interceptions, returning one for a touchdown, seven pass deflections and one blocked kick. Haugabrook has also returned 22 punts for an average of 13.5 yards per return, including one for a TD and four kickoffs for a 27.2 yards per return average. MY OBSERVATIONS: If Delaware has any weakness it would be on pass defense, allowing 220.5 yards per game. I expect the Salukis to do more passing than usual in this game unless their running backs can gain consistently on the ground. The Salukis’ must have their ground attack working on all cylinders to get the victory. The secondary must pick it up a notch and play better than they did against Northern Iowa two weeks ago, or they will be in serious trouble. Delaware has been efficient at both running and passing the ball all year. I expect equal time for both variations in this game as well. If they can gain meaningful yardage in both passing and rushing they will take the victory. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Southern Illinois, Abdulqaadir and Koutsos are quick strong backs that can power their way for big gainers while shaking off would be tacklers. Sambursky, though only a sophomore, has shown great leadership abilities and is very qualified as a passer if the need arises. Egan is more than capable of putting pressure on the opponents quarterback and Moreland is a speedster at safety that will be a menace to the Blue Hens receivers. For Delaware, it all begins with their imposing quarterback Andy Hall. Hall is a seasoned and very clever ball handler that is a pleasure to watch. When attacking on the ground the athletic ability of Bennett will delight fans with his power drives. Boler will make his presence felt with his deceptive moves in pursuit of a pass thrown by Hall. Johnson will be a worrisome individual to Sambursky as he attempts to complete an offensive play. Haugabrook could be the most valuable player on the field in this game as a return man and on defense with his relentless pursuit of the SIU receivers. Both these teams have had outstanding seasons and it’s too bad they have to meet in a first-round playoff game. Just a hunch, but I’ll take Southern Illinois, 24-21.
at Colgate (12-0) over Massachusetts (10-2). Dick Biddle is in his eighth season as head coach of the Raiders. He was named Colgate’s 29th head football coach in November of 1995 after serving as an assistant coach for a total of 10 years with the Raiders. Last season, Colgate (9-3) captured its third Patriot League title under Biddle, and won seven or more games for the sixth straight season. Biddle became the first Colgate coach to be named a three-time winner of the Howard Hartman Award. Mark Whipple took over a program which finished 2-9 in 1997 and had won just 19 games in the previous four seasons before his arrival, coach Whipple is in his sixth season as head football coach at the University of Massachusetts looking to build on the unparalleled success the Minutemen have enjoyed under his leadership the past five years. Consider that in Whipple’s first five seasons on the sideline, UMass football has captured its first national title, shared a conference championship and made consecutive NCAA I-AA playoff appearances for the first time ever. One thing is for certain, the Minutemen have faced the tougher schedule this year. They both have great teams. Having the game at home is a bonus for Colgate, but will it be enough. I really have a problem picking a winner here and finally took Colgate because of home field advantage… if that means anything. These two schools will meet in a regular-season game for the next four years. I have been a fan of both these coaches. Colgate is averaging 242.6 yards a game rushing and 178.0 passing. Leading the Raiders’ offensive attack is junior quarterback (#1) Chris Brown who has completed 163-of-280 passes for 2,116 yards and 15 touchdowns while also rushing for 414 yards and eight TDs on 121 carries. Their two leading receivers are junior (#4) Luke Graham and (#6) senior J.R. Gerald. Graham has pulled in 57 passes for 882 yards and six scores and Gerald has 56 catches for 651 yards and four touchdowns while also returning 32 punts an average of 6.2 per return and 20 kickoffs an average of 17.4 yards a return. The man that Colgate relies on to take time off the clock is their steamrolling, All-American candidate, junior tailback (#25) Jamaal Branch who has 338 carries for 2,026 yards (6.0 avg.) and 25 touchdowns. The Raiders senior tight end (#82) John Frieser (6’5”) has 23 catches for 308 yards and four TDs. On defense their outstanding senior linebacker (#41) Tem Lukabu has 95 stops, 10 for losses with five sacks and eight pass breakups. Senior strong safety (#2) Sean McCune totals 69 hits, two interceptions and four pass blocks, while senior cornerback (#14) Chris Williams shows up with 29 tackles, two interceptions, nine pass deflections and two forced fumbles. A standout on the Colgate defensive line is senior tackle (#55) Josh Sabo who checks in with 36 tackles, 10.5 for losses, including four sacks, and four passes defensed. Massachusetts prefers to pass and is averaging 234.2 yards a game with just 152.8 yards rushing per game. The Minutemen are led by their All-America candidate, senior quarterback (#7) Jeff Krohn. For the season Krohn has tossed for 2,762 yards and 28 touchdowns, completing 211-of-386 pass attempts. Ringing the bell with a team-high 47 receptions is junior (#11) Jason Peebler with 933 yards and 13 scores while also returning nine kickoffs an average of 20.7 yards a return. Senior (#6) Jimmy Howard claims 36 catches for 534 yards and four TDs and is averaging 22.5 yards on 13 kickoff returns. Junior (#9) Dominique Stewart counts to his credit 35 receptions for 422 yards and two scores. Leading the Minutemen ground assault is sophomore tailback (#5) Steve Baylark with 248 carries for 1,093 yards and 10 touchdowns while also pulling in 20 passes for 141 yards. Junior fullback (#40) Rich Demers has made 123 carries for 659 yards and five scores while also catching 30 passes for 222 yards and five more TDs. The Minutemen have three seasoned linebackers that are a constant threat to the opposing quarterback with their pressure. Senior linebacker (#55) Mike Kimener has a team-high 125 tackles, 12 for losses, three sacks, two interceptions, two pass breakups and four forced fumbles. Senior linebacker (#10) Jeremy Cain has 106 stops, 13 for losses, three sacks, one interception, three pass blocks, 12 QB hurries and one blocked kick, while senior linebacker (#27) Mike Ziccardi hits the tackle chart with 80, including 2 tackles for loss, six sacks, three pass deflections, two forced and two recovered fumbles. Their defensive backfield is patrolled by All-America candidate junior (#1) Steve Costello with 47 stops, five behind the line, six interceptions, five pass breakups and two forced fumble. MY OBSERVATIONS: Colgate will need to stiffen their pass defense to stand a chance in this game. Colgate is allowing their opponents 198.3 yards per game passing and if they cannot control the UMass passing attack it will be a long day. What the Raiders need to do is grind it out on the ground, hope for an early lead and use the clock. I think they will also be called on to pass more than they usually do in a game. Massachusetts will pass often and try for a couple touchdown lead and then go to a ground attack. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Colgate, Branch who is averaging six yards per rush is one of the big reasons Colgate is in the playoffs. Branch is very strong and can drag would-be tacklers along with him as he powers his way up the field. Brown’s ability to avoid tacklers and his last second decision making at quarterback is a bonus for the Raiders as he usually calls the right play. Graham and Gerald have been good at evading their coverage. Sabo and Lukabu will be put to the test as they must put pressure on Krohn. For Massachusetts, Krohn with his smooth delivery of his passes Peebler is very clever and quite capable of losing his defenders. Costello has an eagle-eye and it is hard for a receiver he is covering to shake him off. Despite everything, I’ll stick with Colgate in a close one, 27-26.
NCAA II Quarterfinal Round Playoff Game
Grand Valley State (11-1) over at Saginaw Valley State (12-0). The Lakers coach Brian Kelly has taken his troops to the last two NCAA Division II finals, losing in the last seconds in 2001 to North Dakota and defeating Valdosta State in 2002. Saginaw Valley coach Randy Awrey has taken Saginaw Valley to the D-II playoffs four straight years, and once again standing in his way from advancing is that old nemesis Grand Valley State. I saw coach Awrey’s Lakeland College team in 1997, while they were completing a perfect 10-0 season, and were still denied a spot in the D-III playoffs because the chairman of the West selection committee was from Concordia in Moorhead. So as it happens Concordia got selected with an 8-2 record and Lakeland was denied and unable to showcase their excellent All-American quarterback Mark Novara. Novara finished his career passing for 11,295 yards, 101 passing touchdowns, including 40 in a single-season. For me this was the biggest snub of a great football team in my 50 years of football! This game between these two Division II giants will be a barn-burner! Grand Valley State is averaging 226.3 yards a game rushing and 245.8 yards passing. During the regular season Saginaw Valley claimed a 34-20 win at home. It is always tough to beat a team twice in one year. The Lakers are led by their super freshman quarterback (#16) Cullen Finnerty who has completed 191-of-292 (65.4 pct.)pass attempts for 2,365 yards and 22 touchdowns while also rushing for 613 yards and seven scores on 117 carries. Freshman receiver (#85) Micah Staley has caught 43 passes for 643 yards and 12 touchdowns, while sophomore halfback (#4) Brandon Langston has 42 receptions for 507 yards and seven TDS and is averaging 26.1 yards on 14 kickoff returns. GVSU’s junior running back (#20) Michael Tennessee has 277 carries for 1,374 yards and 13 scores while also catching 53 passes for 512 yards with three more scores. Sophomore halfback (#9) Ryan Hukill has gained 596 yards on the ground with three touchdowns on 90 carries while also catching 12 passes for 93 yards and one more TD. When Finnerty isn’t behind the controls at quarterback, sophomore (#15) Jeff Dock is. Dock has thrown for 921 yards and eight touchdowns completing 51-of-86 passes while also rushing 30 times for 107 yards and one score. Grand Valley has two outstanding kickers, including senior (#34) David Hendrix who handles the place kicking and sophomore (#37) Matt Regency does the punting. Hendrix has converted on 22-of-25 field goal attempts, including a long of 48 yards while Regency has punted 41 times for a 39.7 per kick average with 14 inside the 20 yard line. The Lakers’ defense is led by their speedy senior strong safety (#14) Scott Mackey with a team-leading 70 tackles, 3.5 for losses, five pass blocks and five interceptions including one he returned for a touchdown. Mackey is also averaging 9.6 yards on 34 punt returns, including one returned for a score. Sophomore free safety (#29) DeJuane Boone has recorded 65 tackles, four interceptions, three pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Senior defensive lineman (#94) Matt Yoches has contributed with 31 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, with four sacks and junior cornerback (#5) Derrick Phillips has 59 hits, three interceptions and 11 pass blocks. Saginaw Valley averages just 140.8 yards per game on the ground and 273.2 yards via the airways. Leading their very productive air attack is junior quarterback (#18) Mark Radlinski who has thrown for 3,128 yards and 32 touchdowns completing 226-of-364 passes (62.1 pct.) and has rushed 42 times for 121 yards and three scores. Radlinski’s favorite target has been senior (#17) Glenn Martinez with 58 receptions for 1,023 yards and 10 touchdowns. Senior (#5) Ruvell Martin has pulled in 49 passes for 566 yards and five scores while sophomore (#7) Stan Spencer has 36 catches for 435 yards and six TDs. Junior (#80) Mark LaFrenier has caught 33 passes for 603 yards and five scores. Senior running back (#28) Damien Bridges has 143 carries for 633 yards and five scores while also catching 12 passes for 64 yards. The Cardinals’ junior place kicker (#6) Eric Houle has connected on 20-of-29 field goal tries with a long of 49 yards and sophomore punter (#37) Dustin Esslin is averaging 41.6 yards on 44 punts with 11 inside the 20. Leading the tackle charts is sophomore linebacker (#47) John DiGeorgio with 120 stops. Junior defensive end (#45) Neil Baumgartner has recorded 72 hits, nine sacks and three fumble recoveries while sophomore defensive back (#3) Joe DiGeorgio has contributed 63 tackles, two sacks, two interceptions, three pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Senior defensive back (#20) T.J. Alston has 51 tackles, four interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and 13 pass breakups. MY OBSERVATIONS: Grand Valley will do more passing this game than usual. They must put pressure on the Cardinals quarterback while the Lakers’ defensive backs will be hard pressed to cover the Cardinals’ receivers. The Lakers’ need to pick off a couple of passes to cause Radlinski to become somewhat cautious with his passes. Saginaw Valley will most likely stay with their productive passing attack. The Cardinals’ passed for 243 yards in their first encounter with the Lakers. I think that they will need to pass for more than that this time, in order to be victorious. Radlinki will throw to several different receivers in this game. John DiGiorgio and Baumgartner must put pressure on the Lakers’ freshman quarterback. I expect a high-scoring game. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Grand Valley State, Finnerty is the key. Watch this young phenom with his poise and scrambling ability. Tennessee is also a likely candidate to follow because of his cleverness in losing his pass coverage or bursting through the line for good yardage on the ground. Mackey is exciting to watch on punt returns as he evades his tacklers while on defense he is a foreboding presence to the enemy pass receivers. For Saginaw Valley, Radlinski with his quick release of the ball to a waiting receiver. Martinez darting past defenders for one of Radlinski’s bombs. John DiGeorgio’s name will be called often because of his ability in finding the ball carrier. Alston is a threat to pick off one of Finnerty’s passes because of his quickness. Baumgartner with his menacing presence darting through the offensive line attacking the quarterback. I take Grand Valley State, 38-33.
At North Alabama (12-0) over Carson-Newman (11-1). Mark Hudspeth is in his second year as head football coach at the University of North Alabama, where he helped direct the Lions through a 4-7 campaign in 2002 in the first steps of a rebuilding phase. That season was highlighted by an offense that broke seven team and 13 individual records, while ranking 13th nationally in passing offense, 24th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. Ken Sparks is now in his 23rd season as the head coach of the Carson-Newman Eagles in 2000. Since he took over the Eagle program in 1980, Sparks has built a national football powerhouse first at the NAIA level and now at the NCAA Division II level. The numbers speak for themselves when examining the success coach Sparks has brought to the Eagle football program- Five national championships, four national runner-up finishes, 16 South Atlantic Conference (SAC) championships and 18 NAIA or NCAA playoff appearances. A respected and well-known coach at any level, Sparks has accumulated the best won-lost record and highest winning percentage of any coach in C-N football history. In 24 seasons at the wheel of the Eagle machine, the 1968 C-N graduate has guided his troops to a 235-55-2 record and has won games at a .808 clip. That winning percentage ranks him second in NCAA Division II among active coaches and puts him fourth among active coaches in all divisions of the NCAA. North Alabama at home will be one tough proposition to overcome and to top it off, Carson-Newman has won only once in seven tries in Braly Stadium. However, I do expect this game to be very competitive. Carson-Newman is coming off an impressive win at Valdosta State last week. North Alabama is averaging 253.6 yards passing per game and 199.1 yards rushing. Their prosperous passing attack is quarterbacked by All-America candidate, senior (#7) Will Hall who has completed 212-of-301 passes (70.4 pct.) for 2,859 yards and 25 touchdowns while also gaining 524 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Senior wide receiver (#8) David Mooneyham is their leading receiver with 44 catches for 711 yards and six scores. Sophomore (#14) Marcus Lewis has tucked in 30 passes for 492 yards and two touchdowns, while junior (#2) Martin Huggins has 24 catches for 364 yards and one TD. Heading the rushing assault is sophomore running back (#1) DeMarcus Blount with 138 carries for 793 yards with 16 touchdowns, and has 33 receptions for 235 yards and three more scores. Junior slot back (#25) Randy Vickers has gained 713 yards rushing and scored eight touchdowns on 134 carries. Freshman kick returner (#21) Anthony Merriitt has averaged 13.8 yards on 38 punt returns and has eight kickoff returns for a 21.5 average per return. The Lions’ have three tenacious linebackers, including sophomore (#33) Donald Thorpe who heads the list with 67 tackles, 15 for losses, including 7.5 sacks, two interceptions and two pass breakups, while junior (#34) Courtney Wright has 54 hits and 11 tackles for loss. Junior (#20) Colby Simmons has contributed 52 tackles, including 12 for losses. At cornerback is junior (#6) Evan Oglesby with 54 stops, five interceptions and seven pass breakups. Carson-Newman blisters the ground with their rushing assault, averaging 346.7 yards a game. The Eagles leading ground gainer is sophomore (#23) J.J. Chatmon with 143 carries for 933 yards and nine touchdowns. Sophomore (#22) Ray Hightower has 83 carries for 632 yards and five scores, while fellow sophomore (#34) Rayvon Howard claims 548 yards rushing and eight TDs on 84 carries. Their most consistent receiver is senior (#3) Alvin Sanders with 22 receptions for 489 yards and five touchdowns. Directing this offense is junior quarterback (#5) Shane Kelley with 139 carries for 783 yards with 11 scores and has completed 70-of-143 passes for 1,518 yards and 12 touchdowns. Sophomore (#16) Henra Chennault is averaging 12.4 yards on punt returns and 23.4 yard on kickoff returns. A definite asset in a close game is senior place kicker (#13) Angel Gonzalez who is 11-for-15 on field goal tries with a long of 48 yards, including 4-of-6 from 40 yards or longer. A pair of linebackers lead the tackle chart for the Lions with sophomore (#8) Eric Solomon having a team-high 75 hits, seven for losses, one interception and three pass blocks, while senior (#42) Robbie Tebow has 49 stops, 13.5 tackles for loss, including nine sacks and seven QB hurries. Senior defensive lineman (#93) Junior Glymph has 44 tackles, 13.5 behind the line, including 11 sacks and eight QB hurries. Senior defensive back (#6) Deonte Bolden has 27 stops, seven interceptions with 125 return yards, including one for a score and five pass deflections, while senior defensive back (#7) Avery Blue hits the tackle chart with 40, one interception and six pass breakups. MY OBSERVATIONS: These are two classy programs challenging each other for the right to move on to the semi-finals. I’m sure this game will be close all the way. I feel that North Alabama will begin the game on the ground to see how successful they can be rushing with the ball, and then take off through the airways. Carson-Newman has many running backs to choose from and I expect they will stay on the ground most of the game unless they need to play catch-up in the later stages of the game. Carson-Newman needs to take control of the game with their rushing attack. North Alabama will try to get a quick lead early to put pressure on Carson-Newman and their time-consuming rushing assault. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For North Alabama, All-America candidate Hall would be the first one I would keep an eye on, this is his senior year and he is very confident and sure of his delivery. Blount is a treat to break for a long gainer and has very good pass catching ability. Mooneyham is loose and has great hands for catching a pass. On defense Tharpe will make his presence felt by his pursuit of Kelley. For Carson-Newman watch their high-octane ground assault, especially Chatmon and Kelley. Chennault is very shifty and if he gets in the open on a kick return there is no catching him. Tebow and Glymph will be unswerving in their pursuit of Hall. Bolden will be a threat to the NAU receivers. In a very hard fought game I will take North Alabama 21-14.
NCAA III Second Round Playoff Game
Baldwin-Wallace (10-1) over at Wheaton (11-0). Coach Mike Swider has posted a 60-19 record in his eight seasons as the Wheaton mentor. He has tallied a .759 winning percentage, which is second all-time among Wheaton's 21 head football coaches. Last year, Swider guided the team to its first playoff appearance and undefeated conference season since 1995, finishing with a 10-2 overall record. Swider was named “Coach of the Year,” for the second time in his eight seasons as Wheaton placed eight on the All-CCIW First Team. John Snell in his first season as the head coach of the Yellow Jackets led B-W to an impressive 8-2 overall record in 2002 and a ranking in both the North Region and national in Division III polls. For his efforts, he was selected as the OAC Co-Coach of the Year by his peers. Baldwin-Wallace averages 268.3 yards rushing per game and 182.2 passing. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack is led by senior (#23) Mark Anders with 1,314 yards and 20 touchdowns on 185 carries and has caught 23 passes for 256 yards and three more scores. B-WC’s second leading rusher is their quarterback (#8) Dan Larlham, the senior has 136 carries for 901 yards and 10 TDs. Larlham has also completed 128-of-217 passes for 1,739 yards and 22 touchdowns. Senior (#4) Randale Richmon has contributed 365 yards and three touchdowns on the ground with his 67 attempts. Leading the receiving corps is junior (#85) Dave Erhman with 29 catches for 399 yards and four scores, while junior (#80) Gary Kopchak has tucked in 21 passes for 308 yards and two TDs. Heading the tackle chart for the Yellow Jackets is senior safety (#37) Greg Koch with 98 stops, 8.5 tackles for loss, four interceptions and four pass breakups. Senior safety (#16) Jeff Fox numbers 72 hits, five interceptions and five pass deflections. A couple of sophomore standouts are the mainstays at linebacker with (#45) Joe George (96 tackles, one interception and five pass blocks) and (#43) Justin Princehorn (94 tackles, 12 for losses, three interceptions and two pass deflections). Senior defensive end (#97) Ryan Lewis has 42 tackles, 13 behind the line with seven sacks, five pass breakups and eight quarterback pressures, while junior defensive end (#46) Nate Mitchell registers 69 hits, 25 tackles for loss, including 12 sacks, six pass breakups and 18 QB hurries. Wheaton is led by their majestic senior quarterback (#16) Chad Bradley’s 2,749 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, completing 183-of-292 passes (62.7 pct.) and he has scored three rushing touchdowns. The Thunders’ senior wide receiver (#4) Andrew King leads all receivers in catches with 68 for 830 yards and four touchdowns. Junior (#22) Brad Musso has caught 60 passes with a team-leading 1,183 receiving yards and has scored 10 times while averaging 16.7 yards on punt returns, including two returned for touchdowns. Junior (#80) Colin Sinclair has brought down 43 passes for 649 yards and five TDs. The rushing attack is centered around senior (#7) Dan Price with 22 carries for 1,106 yards and six scores. Junior (#21) Garrett Granberg has 706 yards on 154 carries for 19 touchdowns, and junior fullback (#41) Skip Ast has rushed 49 times for 225 yards and four TDs. On defense, senior linebacker (#43) Tom McAndrews is tops in tackles with 78 hits, 9.5 for losses and one interception. Senior defensive back (#34) Shawn Wildt has 65 stops, three sacks, four interceptions and eight pass breakups, while senior defensive back (#33) Jan McDearmon registers 60 stops, 12 for losses, including 6.5 sacks, one interception and two pass deflections. Senior defensive back (#28) Ty Gose has recorded 65 tackles, 3.5 for losses, two picks, seven pass blocks and two fumble recoveries. MY OBSERVATIONS: Baldwin-Wallace allowed 520 yards passing against their defense last week while Wheaton allowed their opponent to pass for 500 yards a week ago! I would say that both schools are going to try and exploit each others pass defense!! B-WC is allowing 182.2 yards passing a game and Wheaton is holding their opponents to 132.6 yards passing a game. It’s still hard to figure out how they both allowed 500+ yards passing last week. This might be a three-and-a-half-to-four-hour ballgame. Baldwin-Wallace has held their opponents to 101.7 yards per game on the ground while Wheaton is allowing their opponents to gain 132.6 yards per game on the ground. I was at a four-hour ballgame last week (Valparaiso 54, Morehead State 42)!! I’ve probably been to more Wheaton football games than any other school and I will be at this game. I don’t see a whole lot of defense in this game, so just sit back and enjoy the air show. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Baldwin-Wallace, Larlham who is great at maneuvering and is a very accurate passer! Anders is another key player to watch if he can break through the Thunders’ defensive line. Richmon and Kopchak will see more action in this game than usual. Princehorn pressuring the quarterback, he’s strong and quick. Mitchell is also capable of pressuring Bradley. For Wheaton, Bradley has a sharp eye and a quick release which is a plus for Wheaton in limiting a defenders opportunities for a sack. The electrifying Musso will be a key player, and just watch him accelerate once he has the ball. Price bulldogging it through the defensive line in short yardage situations. McDearmon stalking the quarterback. It seems to me this will be a fun game to be at. I’ll take Baldwin-Wallace in nail-biter 35-30.
NAIA Quarterfinal Playoff Game
at Carroll MT (12-0) over Mary (10-1). Coach Mike Van Diest is in his fifth season as the Fighting Saints head coach and defensive coordinator. The Saints have posted a 49-14 record during this time. This includes an 33-7 Frontier Conference record for a winning percentage of .83. The Fighting Saints have earned three straight Final 4 appearances in the NAIA National Playoffs. In 2002 the Saints were the NAIA National Champions with a 28-7 victory over Georgetown, KY. Before being hired as head coach at the University of Mary, Myron Schulz spent seven years as an assistant coach for the University of Mary. During that time he was the defensive coordinator during four national playoff seasons. Schulz was also a graduate assistant coach at Montana State University under Head Coach Earle Solomonson and Offensive Coordinator Bart Andrus. Schulz led the Marauders to their first out-right Conference title and to the NAIA Semi-Finals in his first year as head coach. This game could be a lot closer than many think, including me. Both schools have a terrific passing attack with Carroll averaging 316.7 yards a game and Mary 253.5. Both catholic schools have a proud tradition with their football programs. I don’t expect much rushing in this game because Carroll allows just 79.5 yards a game rushing and Mary a microscopic 34.8. Carroll is led by All-America candidate, sophomore quarterback (#16) Tyler Emmert, who has thrown for 3,224 yards and 31 touchdowns completing 233-of-308 passes (76 pct.)while also picking up 203 yards rushing with five scores. When Emmert is not behind the line at quarterback they have the very talented senior (#7) Robb Latrielle who has completed 54-of-64 passes (81 pct.) for 565 yards and five touchdowns while also rushing for 84 yards and one score, and has caught five passes for 36 yards. All-America senior wide receiver (#19) Mark Gallik has caught 74 passes for 1,408 yards and 13 TDs. Senior (#80) Zack Zawacki has 40 receptions for 507 yards and five scores while junior (#17) Kevin McCutcheon has 33 catches for 450 yards and three touchdowns. Senior (#11) Matt Garreffa has pulled in 27 passes for 411 yards and three scores and senior fullback (#33) D.J. Dearcorn has 24 receptions for 337 yards with seven TDs, and has rushed for 1,009 yards and 12 touchdowns on 159 carries. Carroll’s defensive chart totals is topped by senior linebacker (#44) Marcus Atkinson with 91 hits, 5.5 for losses including 3.5 sacks. A couple of other linebackers worthy of note are senior (#34) Mike Maddox (70 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, four sacks and six pass blocks) and senior (#3) Brett Bermingham (33 tackles, four interceptions and 10 pass breakups). Senior defensive end (#46) Nate Chiovaro has numbered 49 stops, eight for losses and 12.5 sacks. Mary counts on the leadership of their senior quarterback (#10) Tim Garcia who has completed 177-of-268 passes (66 pct) for 2,370 yards and 28 touchdowns. Garcia’s favorite receiver is junior (#88) Jacob Pfau with 54 receptions for 990 yards and 16 scores. Senior (#80) Derek Schatz has 30 catches for 305 yards and two scores while junior running back (#38) Joe Stugelmeyer has pulled in 35 passes for 302 yards and five TDs. When the Marauders do run with the ball it most likely will be in the hands of senior (#34) Gerald Fryman with 170 carries for 610 yards and seven scores. Senior place kicker (#19) Justin Long has converted 12-of-16 field goal tries and 43-of-46 PAT’s. On defense, senior strong safety (#16) Chris Murdock has seven interception. A pair of junior linebacker have registered two interceptions each, (#28) Chad Fetzer and (#07) Sione Taufoou. MY OBSERVATIONS: I expect this to be a monumentally long and exciting game. Mary is allowing just 166.5 yards passing a game and Carroll just 174.9, well I think those averages will be higher after this game for both schools! This will be a showcase for quarterbacks and their passing game. I would love to see these two combatants go at it. I believe the difference in this game will be the experience that Carroll’s Gallik brings to the game. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Carroll, Emmert’s brother was an All-America quarterback at Carroll and Tyler has stepped into his shoes quite comfortably. Emmert is amazing as is his receiver Gallik. Those two will mesmerize you with their ability to connect on a pass play. Atkinson and Maddox will pressure Garcia relentlessly. Bermingham is quick and will mess with Mary’s receivers all day. For Mary, Garcia has a sizable task facing him, and if he can get enough protection from his offensive line it can be overcome. Garcia has all the tools needed for an outstanding quarterback and could make the difference in a Mary win. Pfau can be elusive and will create a problem on pass coverage for Carroll. Murdock is superb on pass coverage. In a great show of two talented teams I’ll pick Carroll, 28-14.
First, I will list the Top Playoff Games, as I see them, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday. As time permits I will try to give my analysis on as many games as possible.
NCAA 1-AA Playoff Game
Southern Illinois (10-1) over at Delaware (11-1). Southern Illinois’ coach Jerry Kill, in his third season as head coach at Southern, has transformed the Salukis from doormat to champion. Coming off a 4-8 season, SIU was picked to finish sixth in the Gateway this year by the coaches and media. Instead, it tied the school record for regular-season wins with 10 and rose as high as #2 in the national polls. The #4-ranked Salukis shared the Gateway Conference title with Northern Iowa and will participate in their first I-AA playoff game in 20 years when they travel to Delaware Saturday. K.C. Keeler, 44, who was a three-year starting linebacker for the Blue Hens in 1978-80 and led the team to the NCAA Division II national title before becoming one of the nation's most successful coaches on the NCAA Division III level. Keeler led his first Blue Hen team to a record of 6-6 in 2002, including a mark of 4-5 in Atlantic 10 play for a sixth place finish. Despite a .500 record, his rookie season was anything but uneventful. The youthful Blue Hens defeated three top 15 and NCAA I-AA Tournament teams during the year (Georgia Southern, Northeastern, and Maine) and lost its six games by a combined total of just 26 points. Southern Illinois averages 273.5 yards rushing per game while Delaware is allowing just 114.2 yards a game rushing. Heading the Salukis rushing attack are two very talented running backs, senior (#32) Mo Abdulqaadir who has rushed for 954 yards and 11 touchdowns on 161 carries (5.9 avg.), while senior (#24) Tom Koutsos has picked up 941 yards and 11scores on 179 carries. SIU’s senior fullback (#25) Brandon Robinson has 72 rushes for 444 yards ((6.2 avg.) and scored three times, while also pulling in 15 receptions for 227 yards with two more touchdowns. Robinson also returns kicks, returning 13 punts for an average of 14.5 yards and 8 kickoffs for a return average of 18.1. Quarterbacking this ground attack is sophomore (#12) Joel Sambursky with 90 carries for 332 yards and six scores while also completing 102-of-180 passes for 1,561 yards and 14 scores. Sambursky’s most often used target is sophomore wide receiver (#6) Brent Little with 32 catches for 590 yards and six TDs and has returned nine kickoffs an average of 28.1 yards each. Another offensive weapon for the Salukis’ is freshman kicker (#19) Craig Coffin who has connected on 10-of-15 field goal attempts, including a long of 48 yards, and is 46-for-50 on PAT’s. Junior safety (#7) Alexis Moreland leads the team in tackles with 83, including three tackles for loss, two interceptions, two pass deflections and one blocked kick. Senior linebacker (#35) Eric Egan has 72 stops, 10 for losses, including three sacks, while sophomore linebacker (#34) Royal Whitaker has 73 stops, three for minus yardage, three interceptions and two pass breakups. Delaware is averaging 206.2 yards a game rushing and 203.2 passing. Directing the Blue Hens offensive attack is all-America candidate, senior quarterback (#12) Andy Hall with 137 carries for 630 yards and eight touchdowns, while also completing 195-of-303 passes for 2,285 yards and 21 scores. Sophomore receiver (#6) David Boler is their leading pass catcher with 45 for 518 yards and six TDs and has returned 16 kickoffs an average of 20.4 yards per return. Sophomore (#7) Brian Ingram checks in with 40 receptions for an identical 518 yards and three scores, while sophomore Justin Long has caught 40 passes for 431 yards and four touchdowns. Top rusher is senior running back (#2) Germaine Bennett with 232 carries for 1,135 yards and 12 TDs. Delaware’s leading tackler is junior linebacker (#58) Mondoe Davis with 81 hits, 5.5 for losses with four sacks. Sophomore linebacker (#44) John Mulhern has 75 stops, 7.5 tackles for loss, one interception and five pass blocks, while senior defensive lineman (#96) Shawn Johnson has contributed 54 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, 12 sacks and five pass breakups. Extremely dangerous is their junior defensive back (#47) Sidney Haugabrook with 68 tackles, 2 interceptions, returning one for a touchdown, seven pass deflections and one blocked kick. Haugabrook has also returned 22 punts for an average of 13.5 yards per return, including one for a TD and four kickoffs for a 27.2 yards per return average. MY OBSERVATIONS: If Delaware has any weakness it would be on pass defense, allowing 220.5 yards per game. I expect the Salukis to do more passing than usual in this game unless their running backs can gain consistently on the ground. The Salukis’ must have their ground attack working on all cylinders to get the victory. The secondary must pick it up a notch and play better than they did against Northern Iowa two weeks ago, or they will be in serious trouble. Delaware has been efficient at both running and passing the ball all year. I expect equal time for both variations in this game as well. If they can gain meaningful yardage in both passing and rushing they will take the victory. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Southern Illinois, Abdulqaadir and Koutsos are quick strong backs that can power their way for big gainers while shaking off would be tacklers. Sambursky, though only a sophomore, has shown great leadership abilities and is very qualified as a passer if the need arises. Egan is more than capable of putting pressure on the opponents quarterback and Moreland is a speedster at safety that will be a menace to the Blue Hens receivers. For Delaware, it all begins with their imposing quarterback Andy Hall. Hall is a seasoned and very clever ball handler that is a pleasure to watch. When attacking on the ground the athletic ability of Bennett will delight fans with his power drives. Boler will make his presence felt with his deceptive moves in pursuit of a pass thrown by Hall. Johnson will be a worrisome individual to Sambursky as he attempts to complete an offensive play. Haugabrook could be the most valuable player on the field in this game as a return man and on defense with his relentless pursuit of the SIU receivers. Both these teams have had outstanding seasons and it’s too bad they have to meet in a first-round playoff game. Just a hunch, but I’ll take Southern Illinois, 24-21.
at Colgate (12-0) over Massachusetts (10-2). Dick Biddle is in his eighth season as head coach of the Raiders. He was named Colgate’s 29th head football coach in November of 1995 after serving as an assistant coach for a total of 10 years with the Raiders. Last season, Colgate (9-3) captured its third Patriot League title under Biddle, and won seven or more games for the sixth straight season. Biddle became the first Colgate coach to be named a three-time winner of the Howard Hartman Award. Mark Whipple took over a program which finished 2-9 in 1997 and had won just 19 games in the previous four seasons before his arrival, coach Whipple is in his sixth season as head football coach at the University of Massachusetts looking to build on the unparalleled success the Minutemen have enjoyed under his leadership the past five years. Consider that in Whipple’s first five seasons on the sideline, UMass football has captured its first national title, shared a conference championship and made consecutive NCAA I-AA playoff appearances for the first time ever. One thing is for certain, the Minutemen have faced the tougher schedule this year. They both have great teams. Having the game at home is a bonus for Colgate, but will it be enough. I really have a problem picking a winner here and finally took Colgate because of home field advantage… if that means anything. These two schools will meet in a regular-season game for the next four years. I have been a fan of both these coaches. Colgate is averaging 242.6 yards a game rushing and 178.0 passing. Leading the Raiders’ offensive attack is junior quarterback (#1) Chris Brown who has completed 163-of-280 passes for 2,116 yards and 15 touchdowns while also rushing for 414 yards and eight TDs on 121 carries. Their two leading receivers are junior (#4) Luke Graham and (#6) senior J.R. Gerald. Graham has pulled in 57 passes for 882 yards and six scores and Gerald has 56 catches for 651 yards and four touchdowns while also returning 32 punts an average of 6.2 per return and 20 kickoffs an average of 17.4 yards a return. The man that Colgate relies on to take time off the clock is their steamrolling, All-American candidate, junior tailback (#25) Jamaal Branch who has 338 carries for 2,026 yards (6.0 avg.) and 25 touchdowns. The Raiders senior tight end (#82) John Frieser (6’5”) has 23 catches for 308 yards and four TDs. On defense their outstanding senior linebacker (#41) Tem Lukabu has 95 stops, 10 for losses with five sacks and eight pass breakups. Senior strong safety (#2) Sean McCune totals 69 hits, two interceptions and four pass blocks, while senior cornerback (#14) Chris Williams shows up with 29 tackles, two interceptions, nine pass deflections and two forced fumbles. A standout on the Colgate defensive line is senior tackle (#55) Josh Sabo who checks in with 36 tackles, 10.5 for losses, including four sacks, and four passes defensed. Massachusetts prefers to pass and is averaging 234.2 yards a game with just 152.8 yards rushing per game. The Minutemen are led by their All-America candidate, senior quarterback (#7) Jeff Krohn. For the season Krohn has tossed for 2,762 yards and 28 touchdowns, completing 211-of-386 pass attempts. Ringing the bell with a team-high 47 receptions is junior (#11) Jason Peebler with 933 yards and 13 scores while also returning nine kickoffs an average of 20.7 yards a return. Senior (#6) Jimmy Howard claims 36 catches for 534 yards and four TDs and is averaging 22.5 yards on 13 kickoff returns. Junior (#9) Dominique Stewart counts to his credit 35 receptions for 422 yards and two scores. Leading the Minutemen ground assault is sophomore tailback (#5) Steve Baylark with 248 carries for 1,093 yards and 10 touchdowns while also pulling in 20 passes for 141 yards. Junior fullback (#40) Rich Demers has made 123 carries for 659 yards and five scores while also catching 30 passes for 222 yards and five more TDs. The Minutemen have three seasoned linebackers that are a constant threat to the opposing quarterback with their pressure. Senior linebacker (#55) Mike Kimener has a team-high 125 tackles, 12 for losses, three sacks, two interceptions, two pass breakups and four forced fumbles. Senior linebacker (#10) Jeremy Cain has 106 stops, 13 for losses, three sacks, one interception, three pass blocks, 12 QB hurries and one blocked kick, while senior linebacker (#27) Mike Ziccardi hits the tackle chart with 80, including 2 tackles for loss, six sacks, three pass deflections, two forced and two recovered fumbles. Their defensive backfield is patrolled by All-America candidate junior (#1) Steve Costello with 47 stops, five behind the line, six interceptions, five pass breakups and two forced fumble. MY OBSERVATIONS: Colgate will need to stiffen their pass defense to stand a chance in this game. Colgate is allowing their opponents 198.3 yards per game passing and if they cannot control the UMass passing attack it will be a long day. What the Raiders need to do is grind it out on the ground, hope for an early lead and use the clock. I think they will also be called on to pass more than they usually do in a game. Massachusetts will pass often and try for a couple touchdown lead and then go to a ground attack. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Colgate, Branch who is averaging six yards per rush is one of the big reasons Colgate is in the playoffs. Branch is very strong and can drag would-be tacklers along with him as he powers his way up the field. Brown’s ability to avoid tacklers and his last second decision making at quarterback is a bonus for the Raiders as he usually calls the right play. Graham and Gerald have been good at evading their coverage. Sabo and Lukabu will be put to the test as they must put pressure on Krohn. For Massachusetts, Krohn with his smooth delivery of his passes Peebler is very clever and quite capable of losing his defenders. Costello has an eagle-eye and it is hard for a receiver he is covering to shake him off. Despite everything, I’ll stick with Colgate in a close one, 27-26.
NCAA II Quarterfinal Round Playoff Game
Grand Valley State (11-1) over at Saginaw Valley State (12-0). The Lakers coach Brian Kelly has taken his troops to the last two NCAA Division II finals, losing in the last seconds in 2001 to North Dakota and defeating Valdosta State in 2002. Saginaw Valley coach Randy Awrey has taken Saginaw Valley to the D-II playoffs four straight years, and once again standing in his way from advancing is that old nemesis Grand Valley State. I saw coach Awrey’s Lakeland College team in 1997, while they were completing a perfect 10-0 season, and were still denied a spot in the D-III playoffs because the chairman of the West selection committee was from Concordia in Moorhead. So as it happens Concordia got selected with an 8-2 record and Lakeland was denied and unable to showcase their excellent All-American quarterback Mark Novara. Novara finished his career passing for 11,295 yards, 101 passing touchdowns, including 40 in a single-season. For me this was the biggest snub of a great football team in my 50 years of football! This game between these two Division II giants will be a barn-burner! Grand Valley State is averaging 226.3 yards a game rushing and 245.8 yards passing. During the regular season Saginaw Valley claimed a 34-20 win at home. It is always tough to beat a team twice in one year. The Lakers are led by their super freshman quarterback (#16) Cullen Finnerty who has completed 191-of-292 (65.4 pct.)pass attempts for 2,365 yards and 22 touchdowns while also rushing for 613 yards and seven scores on 117 carries. Freshman receiver (#85) Micah Staley has caught 43 passes for 643 yards and 12 touchdowns, while sophomore halfback (#4) Brandon Langston has 42 receptions for 507 yards and seven TDS and is averaging 26.1 yards on 14 kickoff returns. GVSU’s junior running back (#20) Michael Tennessee has 277 carries for 1,374 yards and 13 scores while also catching 53 passes for 512 yards with three more scores. Sophomore halfback (#9) Ryan Hukill has gained 596 yards on the ground with three touchdowns on 90 carries while also catching 12 passes for 93 yards and one more TD. When Finnerty isn’t behind the controls at quarterback, sophomore (#15) Jeff Dock is. Dock has thrown for 921 yards and eight touchdowns completing 51-of-86 passes while also rushing 30 times for 107 yards and one score. Grand Valley has two outstanding kickers, including senior (#34) David Hendrix who handles the place kicking and sophomore (#37) Matt Regency does the punting. Hendrix has converted on 22-of-25 field goal attempts, including a long of 48 yards while Regency has punted 41 times for a 39.7 per kick average with 14 inside the 20 yard line. The Lakers’ defense is led by their speedy senior strong safety (#14) Scott Mackey with a team-leading 70 tackles, 3.5 for losses, five pass blocks and five interceptions including one he returned for a touchdown. Mackey is also averaging 9.6 yards on 34 punt returns, including one returned for a score. Sophomore free safety (#29) DeJuane Boone has recorded 65 tackles, four interceptions, three pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Senior defensive lineman (#94) Matt Yoches has contributed with 31 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, with four sacks and junior cornerback (#5) Derrick Phillips has 59 hits, three interceptions and 11 pass blocks. Saginaw Valley averages just 140.8 yards per game on the ground and 273.2 yards via the airways. Leading their very productive air attack is junior quarterback (#18) Mark Radlinski who has thrown for 3,128 yards and 32 touchdowns completing 226-of-364 passes (62.1 pct.) and has rushed 42 times for 121 yards and three scores. Radlinski’s favorite target has been senior (#17) Glenn Martinez with 58 receptions for 1,023 yards and 10 touchdowns. Senior (#5) Ruvell Martin has pulled in 49 passes for 566 yards and five scores while sophomore (#7) Stan Spencer has 36 catches for 435 yards and six TDs. Junior (#80) Mark LaFrenier has caught 33 passes for 603 yards and five scores. Senior running back (#28) Damien Bridges has 143 carries for 633 yards and five scores while also catching 12 passes for 64 yards. The Cardinals’ junior place kicker (#6) Eric Houle has connected on 20-of-29 field goal tries with a long of 49 yards and sophomore punter (#37) Dustin Esslin is averaging 41.6 yards on 44 punts with 11 inside the 20. Leading the tackle charts is sophomore linebacker (#47) John DiGeorgio with 120 stops. Junior defensive end (#45) Neil Baumgartner has recorded 72 hits, nine sacks and three fumble recoveries while sophomore defensive back (#3) Joe DiGeorgio has contributed 63 tackles, two sacks, two interceptions, three pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Senior defensive back (#20) T.J. Alston has 51 tackles, four interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and 13 pass breakups. MY OBSERVATIONS: Grand Valley will do more passing this game than usual. They must put pressure on the Cardinals quarterback while the Lakers’ defensive backs will be hard pressed to cover the Cardinals’ receivers. The Lakers’ need to pick off a couple of passes to cause Radlinski to become somewhat cautious with his passes. Saginaw Valley will most likely stay with their productive passing attack. The Cardinals’ passed for 243 yards in their first encounter with the Lakers. I think that they will need to pass for more than that this time, in order to be victorious. Radlinki will throw to several different receivers in this game. John DiGiorgio and Baumgartner must put pressure on the Lakers’ freshman quarterback. I expect a high-scoring game. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Grand Valley State, Finnerty is the key. Watch this young phenom with his poise and scrambling ability. Tennessee is also a likely candidate to follow because of his cleverness in losing his pass coverage or bursting through the line for good yardage on the ground. Mackey is exciting to watch on punt returns as he evades his tacklers while on defense he is a foreboding presence to the enemy pass receivers. For Saginaw Valley, Radlinski with his quick release of the ball to a waiting receiver. Martinez darting past defenders for one of Radlinski’s bombs. John DiGeorgio’s name will be called often because of his ability in finding the ball carrier. Alston is a threat to pick off one of Finnerty’s passes because of his quickness. Baumgartner with his menacing presence darting through the offensive line attacking the quarterback. I take Grand Valley State, 38-33.
At North Alabama (12-0) over Carson-Newman (11-1). Mark Hudspeth is in his second year as head football coach at the University of North Alabama, where he helped direct the Lions through a 4-7 campaign in 2002 in the first steps of a rebuilding phase. That season was highlighted by an offense that broke seven team and 13 individual records, while ranking 13th nationally in passing offense, 24th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. Ken Sparks is now in his 23rd season as the head coach of the Carson-Newman Eagles in 2000. Since he took over the Eagle program in 1980, Sparks has built a national football powerhouse first at the NAIA level and now at the NCAA Division II level. The numbers speak for themselves when examining the success coach Sparks has brought to the Eagle football program- Five national championships, four national runner-up finishes, 16 South Atlantic Conference (SAC) championships and 18 NAIA or NCAA playoff appearances. A respected and well-known coach at any level, Sparks has accumulated the best won-lost record and highest winning percentage of any coach in C-N football history. In 24 seasons at the wheel of the Eagle machine, the 1968 C-N graduate has guided his troops to a 235-55-2 record and has won games at a .808 clip. That winning percentage ranks him second in NCAA Division II among active coaches and puts him fourth among active coaches in all divisions of the NCAA. North Alabama at home will be one tough proposition to overcome and to top it off, Carson-Newman has won only once in seven tries in Braly Stadium. However, I do expect this game to be very competitive. Carson-Newman is coming off an impressive win at Valdosta State last week. North Alabama is averaging 253.6 yards passing per game and 199.1 yards rushing. Their prosperous passing attack is quarterbacked by All-America candidate, senior (#7) Will Hall who has completed 212-of-301 passes (70.4 pct.) for 2,859 yards and 25 touchdowns while also gaining 524 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Senior wide receiver (#8) David Mooneyham is their leading receiver with 44 catches for 711 yards and six scores. Sophomore (#14) Marcus Lewis has tucked in 30 passes for 492 yards and two touchdowns, while junior (#2) Martin Huggins has 24 catches for 364 yards and one TD. Heading the rushing assault is sophomore running back (#1) DeMarcus Blount with 138 carries for 793 yards with 16 touchdowns, and has 33 receptions for 235 yards and three more scores. Junior slot back (#25) Randy Vickers has gained 713 yards rushing and scored eight touchdowns on 134 carries. Freshman kick returner (#21) Anthony Merriitt has averaged 13.8 yards on 38 punt returns and has eight kickoff returns for a 21.5 average per return. The Lions’ have three tenacious linebackers, including sophomore (#33) Donald Thorpe who heads the list with 67 tackles, 15 for losses, including 7.5 sacks, two interceptions and two pass breakups, while junior (#34) Courtney Wright has 54 hits and 11 tackles for loss. Junior (#20) Colby Simmons has contributed 52 tackles, including 12 for losses. At cornerback is junior (#6) Evan Oglesby with 54 stops, five interceptions and seven pass breakups. Carson-Newman blisters the ground with their rushing assault, averaging 346.7 yards a game. The Eagles leading ground gainer is sophomore (#23) J.J. Chatmon with 143 carries for 933 yards and nine touchdowns. Sophomore (#22) Ray Hightower has 83 carries for 632 yards and five scores, while fellow sophomore (#34) Rayvon Howard claims 548 yards rushing and eight TDs on 84 carries. Their most consistent receiver is senior (#3) Alvin Sanders with 22 receptions for 489 yards and five touchdowns. Directing this offense is junior quarterback (#5) Shane Kelley with 139 carries for 783 yards with 11 scores and has completed 70-of-143 passes for 1,518 yards and 12 touchdowns. Sophomore (#16) Henra Chennault is averaging 12.4 yards on punt returns and 23.4 yard on kickoff returns. A definite asset in a close game is senior place kicker (#13) Angel Gonzalez who is 11-for-15 on field goal tries with a long of 48 yards, including 4-of-6 from 40 yards or longer. A pair of linebackers lead the tackle chart for the Lions with sophomore (#8) Eric Solomon having a team-high 75 hits, seven for losses, one interception and three pass blocks, while senior (#42) Robbie Tebow has 49 stops, 13.5 tackles for loss, including nine sacks and seven QB hurries. Senior defensive lineman (#93) Junior Glymph has 44 tackles, 13.5 behind the line, including 11 sacks and eight QB hurries. Senior defensive back (#6) Deonte Bolden has 27 stops, seven interceptions with 125 return yards, including one for a score and five pass deflections, while senior defensive back (#7) Avery Blue hits the tackle chart with 40, one interception and six pass breakups. MY OBSERVATIONS: These are two classy programs challenging each other for the right to move on to the semi-finals. I’m sure this game will be close all the way. I feel that North Alabama will begin the game on the ground to see how successful they can be rushing with the ball, and then take off through the airways. Carson-Newman has many running backs to choose from and I expect they will stay on the ground most of the game unless they need to play catch-up in the later stages of the game. Carson-Newman needs to take control of the game with their rushing attack. North Alabama will try to get a quick lead early to put pressure on Carson-Newman and their time-consuming rushing assault. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For North Alabama, All-America candidate Hall would be the first one I would keep an eye on, this is his senior year and he is very confident and sure of his delivery. Blount is a treat to break for a long gainer and has very good pass catching ability. Mooneyham is loose and has great hands for catching a pass. On defense Tharpe will make his presence felt by his pursuit of Kelley. For Carson-Newman watch their high-octane ground assault, especially Chatmon and Kelley. Chennault is very shifty and if he gets in the open on a kick return there is no catching him. Tebow and Glymph will be unswerving in their pursuit of Hall. Bolden will be a threat to the NAU receivers. In a very hard fought game I will take North Alabama 21-14.
NCAA III Second Round Playoff Game
Baldwin-Wallace (10-1) over at Wheaton (11-0). Coach Mike Swider has posted a 60-19 record in his eight seasons as the Wheaton mentor. He has tallied a .759 winning percentage, which is second all-time among Wheaton's 21 head football coaches. Last year, Swider guided the team to its first playoff appearance and undefeated conference season since 1995, finishing with a 10-2 overall record. Swider was named “Coach of the Year,” for the second time in his eight seasons as Wheaton placed eight on the All-CCIW First Team. John Snell in his first season as the head coach of the Yellow Jackets led B-W to an impressive 8-2 overall record in 2002 and a ranking in both the North Region and national in Division III polls. For his efforts, he was selected as the OAC Co-Coach of the Year by his peers. Baldwin-Wallace averages 268.3 yards rushing per game and 182.2 passing. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack is led by senior (#23) Mark Anders with 1,314 yards and 20 touchdowns on 185 carries and has caught 23 passes for 256 yards and three more scores. B-WC’s second leading rusher is their quarterback (#8) Dan Larlham, the senior has 136 carries for 901 yards and 10 TDs. Larlham has also completed 128-of-217 passes for 1,739 yards and 22 touchdowns. Senior (#4) Randale Richmon has contributed 365 yards and three touchdowns on the ground with his 67 attempts. Leading the receiving corps is junior (#85) Dave Erhman with 29 catches for 399 yards and four scores, while junior (#80) Gary Kopchak has tucked in 21 passes for 308 yards and two TDs. Heading the tackle chart for the Yellow Jackets is senior safety (#37) Greg Koch with 98 stops, 8.5 tackles for loss, four interceptions and four pass breakups. Senior safety (#16) Jeff Fox numbers 72 hits, five interceptions and five pass deflections. A couple of sophomore standouts are the mainstays at linebacker with (#45) Joe George (96 tackles, one interception and five pass blocks) and (#43) Justin Princehorn (94 tackles, 12 for losses, three interceptions and two pass deflections). Senior defensive end (#97) Ryan Lewis has 42 tackles, 13 behind the line with seven sacks, five pass breakups and eight quarterback pressures, while junior defensive end (#46) Nate Mitchell registers 69 hits, 25 tackles for loss, including 12 sacks, six pass breakups and 18 QB hurries. Wheaton is led by their majestic senior quarterback (#16) Chad Bradley’s 2,749 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, completing 183-of-292 passes (62.7 pct.) and he has scored three rushing touchdowns. The Thunders’ senior wide receiver (#4) Andrew King leads all receivers in catches with 68 for 830 yards and four touchdowns. Junior (#22) Brad Musso has caught 60 passes with a team-leading 1,183 receiving yards and has scored 10 times while averaging 16.7 yards on punt returns, including two returned for touchdowns. Junior (#80) Colin Sinclair has brought down 43 passes for 649 yards and five TDs. The rushing attack is centered around senior (#7) Dan Price with 22 carries for 1,106 yards and six scores. Junior (#21) Garrett Granberg has 706 yards on 154 carries for 19 touchdowns, and junior fullback (#41) Skip Ast has rushed 49 times for 225 yards and four TDs. On defense, senior linebacker (#43) Tom McAndrews is tops in tackles with 78 hits, 9.5 for losses and one interception. Senior defensive back (#34) Shawn Wildt has 65 stops, three sacks, four interceptions and eight pass breakups, while senior defensive back (#33) Jan McDearmon registers 60 stops, 12 for losses, including 6.5 sacks, one interception and two pass deflections. Senior defensive back (#28) Ty Gose has recorded 65 tackles, 3.5 for losses, two picks, seven pass blocks and two fumble recoveries. MY OBSERVATIONS: Baldwin-Wallace allowed 520 yards passing against their defense last week while Wheaton allowed their opponent to pass for 500 yards a week ago! I would say that both schools are going to try and exploit each others pass defense!! B-WC is allowing 182.2 yards passing a game and Wheaton is holding their opponents to 132.6 yards passing a game. It’s still hard to figure out how they both allowed 500+ yards passing last week. This might be a three-and-a-half-to-four-hour ballgame. Baldwin-Wallace has held their opponents to 101.7 yards per game on the ground while Wheaton is allowing their opponents to gain 132.6 yards per game on the ground. I was at a four-hour ballgame last week (Valparaiso 54, Morehead State 42)!! I’ve probably been to more Wheaton football games than any other school and I will be at this game. I don’t see a whole lot of defense in this game, so just sit back and enjoy the air show. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Baldwin-Wallace, Larlham who is great at maneuvering and is a very accurate passer! Anders is another key player to watch if he can break through the Thunders’ defensive line. Richmon and Kopchak will see more action in this game than usual. Princehorn pressuring the quarterback, he’s strong and quick. Mitchell is also capable of pressuring Bradley. For Wheaton, Bradley has a sharp eye and a quick release which is a plus for Wheaton in limiting a defenders opportunities for a sack. The electrifying Musso will be a key player, and just watch him accelerate once he has the ball. Price bulldogging it through the defensive line in short yardage situations. McDearmon stalking the quarterback. It seems to me this will be a fun game to be at. I’ll take Baldwin-Wallace in nail-biter 35-30.
NAIA Quarterfinal Playoff Game
at Carroll MT (12-0) over Mary (10-1). Coach Mike Van Diest is in his fifth season as the Fighting Saints head coach and defensive coordinator. The Saints have posted a 49-14 record during this time. This includes an 33-7 Frontier Conference record for a winning percentage of .83. The Fighting Saints have earned three straight Final 4 appearances in the NAIA National Playoffs. In 2002 the Saints were the NAIA National Champions with a 28-7 victory over Georgetown, KY. Before being hired as head coach at the University of Mary, Myron Schulz spent seven years as an assistant coach for the University of Mary. During that time he was the defensive coordinator during four national playoff seasons. Schulz was also a graduate assistant coach at Montana State University under Head Coach Earle Solomonson and Offensive Coordinator Bart Andrus. Schulz led the Marauders to their first out-right Conference title and to the NAIA Semi-Finals in his first year as head coach. This game could be a lot closer than many think, including me. Both schools have a terrific passing attack with Carroll averaging 316.7 yards a game and Mary 253.5. Both catholic schools have a proud tradition with their football programs. I don’t expect much rushing in this game because Carroll allows just 79.5 yards a game rushing and Mary a microscopic 34.8. Carroll is led by All-America candidate, sophomore quarterback (#16) Tyler Emmert, who has thrown for 3,224 yards and 31 touchdowns completing 233-of-308 passes (76 pct.)while also picking up 203 yards rushing with five scores. When Emmert is not behind the line at quarterback they have the very talented senior (#7) Robb Latrielle who has completed 54-of-64 passes (81 pct.) for 565 yards and five touchdowns while also rushing for 84 yards and one score, and has caught five passes for 36 yards. All-America senior wide receiver (#19) Mark Gallik has caught 74 passes for 1,408 yards and 13 TDs. Senior (#80) Zack Zawacki has 40 receptions for 507 yards and five scores while junior (#17) Kevin McCutcheon has 33 catches for 450 yards and three touchdowns. Senior (#11) Matt Garreffa has pulled in 27 passes for 411 yards and three scores and senior fullback (#33) D.J. Dearcorn has 24 receptions for 337 yards with seven TDs, and has rushed for 1,009 yards and 12 touchdowns on 159 carries. Carroll’s defensive chart totals is topped by senior linebacker (#44) Marcus Atkinson with 91 hits, 5.5 for losses including 3.5 sacks. A couple of other linebackers worthy of note are senior (#34) Mike Maddox (70 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, four sacks and six pass blocks) and senior (#3) Brett Bermingham (33 tackles, four interceptions and 10 pass breakups). Senior defensive end (#46) Nate Chiovaro has numbered 49 stops, eight for losses and 12.5 sacks. Mary counts on the leadership of their senior quarterback (#10) Tim Garcia who has completed 177-of-268 passes (66 pct) for 2,370 yards and 28 touchdowns. Garcia’s favorite receiver is junior (#88) Jacob Pfau with 54 receptions for 990 yards and 16 scores. Senior (#80) Derek Schatz has 30 catches for 305 yards and two scores while junior running back (#38) Joe Stugelmeyer has pulled in 35 passes for 302 yards and five TDs. When the Marauders do run with the ball it most likely will be in the hands of senior (#34) Gerald Fryman with 170 carries for 610 yards and seven scores. Senior place kicker (#19) Justin Long has converted 12-of-16 field goal tries and 43-of-46 PAT’s. On defense, senior strong safety (#16) Chris Murdock has seven interception. A pair of junior linebacker have registered two interceptions each, (#28) Chad Fetzer and (#07) Sione Taufoou. MY OBSERVATIONS: I expect this to be a monumentally long and exciting game. Mary is allowing just 166.5 yards passing a game and Carroll just 174.9, well I think those averages will be higher after this game for both schools! This will be a showcase for quarterbacks and their passing game. I would love to see these two combatants go at it. I believe the difference in this game will be the experience that Carroll’s Gallik brings to the game. PLAYERS TO WATCH: For Carroll, Emmert’s brother was an All-America quarterback at Carroll and Tyler has stepped into his shoes quite comfortably. Emmert is amazing as is his receiver Gallik. Those two will mesmerize you with their ability to connect on a pass play. Atkinson and Maddox will pressure Garcia relentlessly. Bermingham is quick and will mess with Mary’s receivers all day. For Mary, Garcia has a sizable task facing him, and if he can get enough protection from his offensive line it can be overcome. Garcia has all the tools needed for an outstanding quarterback and could make the difference in a Mary win. Pfau can be elusive and will create a problem on pass coverage for Carroll. Murdock is superb on pass coverage. In a great show of two talented teams I’ll pick Carroll, 28-14.
posted by Don @ 11/27/2003 01:31:00 AM
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