Top Small College Football games for 10/11

Last week (10/4), with my picks on the Top Game in each of the four divisions, I went 4-0. Overall, I had 28 right and 9 wrong for 75.7 percent. All 283 of my predictions can be found on the football gazette website [use link on the right side to get there] and then click on Don's predictions.
First, I will list the Top Games, as I see them, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday.

NCAA 1-AA
Western Illinois (4-1) over at Youngstown State (3-2). Western Illinois could have a letdown after their big win last week over Western Kentucky, and Youngstown State has been playing very good lately. This game is at Youngstown but, I still think that Western Illinois will pull out a win in a squeaker. WIU 20-17.

NCAA II
at North Dakota State (4-1) over Nebraska-Omaha (5-1). Is North Dakota State primed to start dominating the NCC as they did in part of the 80’s and 90’s. This game will tell just where they stand. North Dakota State lost earlier this year to a very good UC-Davis team at home, but NDSU also defeated 1-AA third-ranked Montana at their place. UC-Davis became a 1-AA member this year. Both NDSU and Nebraska-Omaha have been very dominating. I have to give the edge at home to NDSU, 20-14.

NCAA III
at Western Connecticut (3-1) over Springfield (5-0). Both teams have top-notch offenses that are explosive. This shapes up as a high-scoring affair. Also, I may really have underestimated just how good Springfield is. This could be my worst pick of the year, but I’ll take Western, 35-31.

NAIA
Sioux Falls (4-0) over at Northwestern (IA) College (5-0). Wow! What a match-up this should be. Sioux Falls lost their all-American quarterback from last year to graduation, but they do have a new man at the helm that has carried on without the USF offense losing a beat, senior, Jon Burckhardt. Northwestern has been in this position many times, so it will not be something new to their program. However, I just feel that Sioux Falls is just too strong overall. Sioux Falls lost in the NAIA playoffs last year by just a few points to eventual NAIA National Champion and current 2003, No. 1-ranked Carroll (MT) College. Sioux Falls, 34-21.

Here are the other top match-ups in each division for this week.

NCAA 1-AA
at Montana (4-1) over Weber State (4-2). It’s my thought that Montana is over-ranked. That said, I still think at home they will pull out the win over Weber State. Weber State lost big-time last week to Northern Arizona and Montana has struggled somewhat, with one of their losses at home to D-II North Dakota State. Weber State’s defense needs help. I’ll take Montana at home, 31-17.

at Pennsylvania (3-0) over Bucknell (3-2). Bucknell was impressive with their 31-10 win last week over 2002 NCAA 1-AA quarterfinalist Fordham. Penn has a dominating defense though. I’ll stick with Penn,
21-7.

at Southern B.R. (5-0) over Alabama A&M (4-2). Both teams can pile up the points, but Alabama A&M is hot-and-cold. Southern has been steady all year. Southern will have the better defense and win, 42-24.

NCAA 1-AA MID-MAJOR
Monmouth (NJ) University (5-0) over at Wagner (3-2). Many feel that I am under-rating Monmouth, and maybe I am. Monmouth was very impressive in their win last week over Iona, while Wagner was defeating an under-achieving Central Connecticut squad. This is at Wagner, but I still like Monmouth’s chances. Monmouth, 21-14.

at San Diego (4-1) over Drake (3-3). Drake is not as bad as that 3-3 record shows. San Diego is coming off a big win over NAIA power Southern Oregon and with that win, they certainly knocked Southern Oregon out of any aspirations they may have had their sights set on to make the playoffs. The week before, San Diego defeated Holy Cross in overtime. USD has a touchdown throwing machine in senior quarterback Eric Rasmussen, and should have little trouble scoring. However, Drake is far from being a patsy. I’ll take San Diego at home, 35-20. Could be closer though.

NCAA II

Fayetteville State (3-2) over at Winston-Salem State (3-2). Don’t let the 3-2 records for these two teams fool you, The winner could very well be in the NCAA II playoffs come November, and acquit themselves very well too. Now, getting down to business. This game is at Winston-Salem, which works against Fayetteville, but I like Fayetteville’s defense. So I’ll pick Fayetteville, 27-16.

at Bowie State (4-2) over Shaw (4-1). This should be a whale-of-a-game. Shaw’s only loss came last week to Fayetteville State, 28-21. This is only Shaw’s first year with a varsity football program, but they sure prepped well. Bowie defeated Fayetteville 13-9 a few weeks ago. At home in a tight one, I will stick with Bowie State, 24-14.

at Saginaw Valley State (5-0) over Findlay (4-1). Findlay has been the third-best team in the GLIAC for the past two years. They will stay there. Saginaw Valley has too many horses on both sides of the ball. SVSU, 35-14.

at Humboldt State (2-1) over (NAIA) Azusa Pacific (4-0). Humboldt has a much improved team in 2003. Azusa really needs this win, because, they have another game coming up against NAIA power, Southern Oregon. If Azusa losses, that will leave the independent NAIA playoff bid open to Southern Nazarene. Just one problem, Southern Nazarene won’t make it either, their upcoming schedule is much too tough. But a loss here and to Southern Oregon could present a problem for Azusa Pacific. I see Humboldt as being too strong. Humboldt State, 21-10.

at Emporia State (5-0) over Northwest Missouri State (3-2). Can Emporia State defeat always tough and two-time NCAA II National champion Northwest Missouri team. Northwest is having a down year and Emporia has put up some good numbers. I’ll stick my neck out and take Emporia at home, 27-24.

at Mansfield (5-0) over Kutztown (4-1). I’ve been waiting for both of these schools to lose, it hasn’t happened though. Well, one will take a fall this Saturday. I’ll take Mansfield at home, 21-20.

at Indiana (PA) University (5-0) over Edinboro (3-2). This is a big rivalry game. Indiana has been playing great football, while Edinboro has been up-and-down. But I think it will be closer than many think. I’ll take Indiana, 21-9.

Mesa State (4-1) over at Chadron State (4-1). I believe a couple of the poll’s are overrating Chadron State. Mesa State has been playing some very good football, while Chadron State is good, but not that good. Mesa State, 28-14.

Tusculum (4-1) over at Presbyterian (2-2). Tusculum is strong enough to put up a challenge for the SAC title. Presbyterian also has a very good team. What it boils down to is defense in this game. I like Tusculum, 24-14.

at Catawba (4-1) over Mars Hill (4-1). Mars Hill is coming off a 35-14 spanking at home against Carson-Newman and Catawba survived Presbyterian, 20-17. Good game to be attending. I’ll take Catawba because of their defense, 21-10.

NCAA III
Brockport State (5-0) over at St. John Fisher (4-1). St. John Fisher’s only loss came to Ithaca by one point. It’s my feeling that some polls are overlooking Brockport. I rank them #4 in D-III. I’m not perfect, but I think they have a great team. I’ll take the visitor, Brockport, 28-14.

Lakeland (4-1) over at Concordia (WI) University (4-1). I rank Concordia and not Lakeland, but Lakeland has been looking like the better team lately, at least to me. One of the coldest, windiest days I have experienced at a football game was a few years ago when Pacific Lutheran played a playoff game at Concordia, when both were NAIA members. The wind and cold really swoops down on you. Looks like the weather will be pleasant this weekend. I’ll take Lakeland, 27-21.

at Wheaton (4-0) over Millikin (4-0). I almost chose this game as the top D-III game of the week, and it would have been a good choice too. I’m not that sure that Wheaton is as good as their lofty ranking. Wheaton defeated a much improved Elmhurst College last week, 23-19. Don’t get me wrong, Elmhurst, under their relatively new coach has a playoff caliber team. There is a long way to go in the conference race and at this time several schools still are in the running for the automatic berth. Millikin has been playing very solid football too. This is at Wheaton and their boisterous fans will help. Wheaton, 27-18.

Augustana (IL) College (2-2) over at Illinois Wesleyan (3-1). Augustana has two losses, but they are not conference losses, so they are still in the CCIW chase. Augustana has played the overall tougher schedule, but Illinois Wesleyan takes pleasure in being the spoiler for Augustana. Even though the game is at IWU, I have to stay with Augustana, 21-17.

Wartburg (4-0) over at Loras (4-0). Loras’ super year will not come to an end, but their winning streak will. Wartburg is just too strong and have one of the very best teams in D-III. Wartburg, 27-7.

King’s (3-2) over at Delaware Valley (4-0). This is another game that I think a team will be knocked from the unbeaten ranks. King’s has experience and were in the playoffs last year. Delaware Valley has surprised everyone with their 4-0 start, but the King’s experience will win out. King’s, 27-23.

Trinity (CT) College (3-0) over at Tufts (3-0). Tufts has defeated three teams, that between them are 1-8 on the season. Trinity has defeated an always tough Williams. Need I say more? Trinity, 27-14.

at Christopher Newport (3-1) over Greensboro (3-1). This is only the third year of varsity football for Christopher Newport, and they have made the playoffs the previous two years. They just get better each year. Greensboro is no match for this defense. CNU, 28-0.

Wisconsin-La Crosse (4-0) over at Wisconsin-Eau Claire (2-2). This year there are several very good teams in Wisconsin. La Crosse is coming off a tough win against Wisconsin-Stevens Point last week, 24-21. Eau Claire is coming off a loss to high-ranked and unbeaten Bethel (MN) College, 45-42. This game could be closer than I am going to predict. I just think that La Crosse got by their major hurdle, and are ready to roll. La Crosse, 35-17.

at Wisconsin-Stevens Point (3-1) over Wisconsin-Stout (2-2). Stout was upset by unbeaten Wisconsin-Oshkosh last week, 15-7. Stout still has a very strong team, but Stevens Point is looking to keep their hopes alive for a playoff berth, maybe as an at-large entry. I like Stevens Point, 28-17.

NAIA
Mary (4-1) over at Minot State (4-1). This will be a barn-burner. Mary lost to Dickinson State a couple of weeks ago, so their hopes for repeating as Dakota Athletic Conference champs look dim. Minot State has been playing much better than anticipated. I still like Mary to win on the road, 24-21.

Nebraska Wesleyan (3-2) over at Midland Lutheran (4-0). This is another game where I think an undefeated team will get their first loss. Midland Lutheran is having one of their best seasons ever. Nebraska Wesleyan has lost a couple of tough games. I still think that NWU is a little better than Midland Lutheran. NMU, 27-20.

at Georgetown (KY) College (4-1) over Cumberland (KY) College (4-0). It has been a few years since Cumberland has had this good of a team, but they have to play at Georgetown now. Georgetown’s only loss is to Top 10-ranked McKendree College. Georgetown has too many talented players. I’ll take GC, 24-14.

at Olivet Nazarene (2-2) over Trinity International (3-2). It has been a few years now since Olivet Nazarene went to the NAIA championship game where they lost a close one to Azusa Pacific. Trinity has been on the verge of completing their quest for a conference title but, I think McKendree has that sewed-up, with St. Xavier maybe having a shot at it. Olivet Nazarene at home will be tough to beat. ONU, 27-20.

Above all, enjoy and have fun at your game this week.