Top Game Analysis for Saturday 11/8
All 280 of my predictions for this weeks games can be found on the Football Gazette website [use link on the right side to get there] and then click on Don's predictions.
First, I will list the Top Game, as I see them, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday. Other signicant game for each division will follow as time permits.
NCAA 1-AA Top Game
at Colgate (9-0) over Lehigh (6-2). Colgate’s defense struggled somewhat in their win last week at Lafayette 47-31. That must improve in this game, especially against the strong passing attack that Lehigh has. Lehigh is coming off a 35-3 pounding at home over Towson. Colgate is averaging 441.8 yards of total offense, including 257.1 yards rushing. Leading the Raiders ground assault is their durable junior tailback Jamaal Branch with 245 carries for 1,496 yards and 20 touchdowns. The second leading rusher is their quarterback, junior Chris Brown with 88 carries for 344 yards and six scores, while also completing 124-of-209 passes for 1,642 yards and 12 TD’s. Brown has a pair of capable receivers in junior J.B. Gerald with 45 catches for 481 yards and four scores and he returns punts and kickoffs. Junior Luke Graham is not far behind Gerald in receptions with 42, with a team leading 681 yards and five touchdowns. The Raiders defense is mainstayed by their dominating senior linebacker Tem Lukabu with his team leading 71 hits, including 10 for losses, five sacks and five pass breakups. The defense is also fortified by senior strong safety Sean McCune with 56 tackles, two tackles for loss, two pass breakups and two interceptions, and rounding out this staunch defense for Colgate is senior defensive tackler Josh Sabo with 28 stops, 9.5 for losses, three sacks, a pass breakup and one fumble recovery. Lehigh, which overwhelmingly prefers to throw the ball, is averaging 243.0 yards passing per game and just 114.9 rushing. Heading their passing offense is junior Kyle Keating who has completed 64-of-101 passes for 706 yards, while also maintaining the punting chores with 47 kicks for and average per kick of 38.2, with a long of 66 yards. Lehigh’s regular starting quarterback Chad Schwenk is out for the season. The Mountain Hawks like to throw to their junior tight end Adam Bergen, and he has responded with 64 receptions for 627 yards and six scores. Senior wide receiver Dave Crockett has 33 receptions for 403 yards and three touchdowns. The top rusher for Lehigh is senior running back Jermaine Pugh with 150 carries for 604 yards and one score while also catching 31 passes for 237 yards and five more TD’s. The Hawks’ defensive leader with 65 tackles is senior linebacker Tom McGeoy including seven tackles behind the line of scrimmage, one interception and three pass deflections. Another linebacker, senior Mike Gregorek has 37 tackles, 12 behind the line, five sacks and six pass blocks. One of the standouts on the defensive line for Lehigh is senior tackle Royce Morgan with 23 tackles, 10 for losses, 5.5 sacks, two pass blocks and one interception which he returned 45 yards for a touchdown. The pacesetter in the defensive backfield is senior back Trevor Micklos with 54 hits, three tackles for loss, six pass breakups and three interceptions. My observation: Lehigh is allowing just 113.5 yards rushing per game, so it becomes imperative that receivers J.B. Gerald and Luke Graham need to get open more frequently to pull in Chris Brown’s throws to enable the Raiders’ running forces to move the ball on the ground. Lehigh does not rush that often, and Colgate is allowing only 92.4 rushing yards per game anyway. The Colgate defensive backfield will be well tested in this game and have to step it up a notch. Colgate is allowing 201.3 yards passing while Lehigh averages 243.0 yards per game passing. Players to watch: For Colgate keep your eye on quarterback Chris Brown to see if he can find his receivers open enough for completions to make their one-two rushing punch of Brown, and tailback Jamaal Branch effective. For Lehigh I’d look to quarterback Kyle Keating and their shifty tight end Adam Bergen. Don’t risk becoming cross-eyes though! Keys to the Game: Strong safety Sean McCune and the rest of the Raiders’ defensive backfield stopping the Hawks’ passing game. For Lehigh, Jermaine Pugh will need to gain some significant yards to enable the passing attack to work at its consummate best. I like Colgate in this one 26-20.
NCAA 1-AA MID-MAJOR Top Game
at Dayton (9-1) over San Diego (7-2). Let’s face it! It’s so very hard to have an unbeaten season, even when you have an exceptionally good team, but that loss the Flyers took at home to Valparaiso earlier this season is coming back to haunt this talented troupe of players. San Diego could also be challenging for the conference championship if they only had a more taut defense. Putting all that behind and laying it to rest, I expect both teams to give their all in this game since it is probably the final football game for both schools this season, and I expect it to be a high-scoring affair. The Toreros from San Diego are led on offense by one of the nations leading passers and all-America candidate, senior quarterback Eric Rasmussen. The 6’3”, 217 pound Rasmussen holds most all the passing records at San Diego and was an honorable mention all-American last year. The strong armed Rasmussen has completed 174-of-286 passes for 29 touchdowns and 2,677 yards this season, while also rushing for 45 yards. Claiming most of his tosses is sophomore wide receiver Adam Hannula with 63 for 983 yards and 12 scores while sophomore Nick Garton has pulled in 43 passes for 783 yards and 10 TD’s. The Toreros ground assault is paced by sophomore running back Evan Harney with 1,260 yards gained with 17 touchdowns on 253 carries while also catching 17 passes for 233 yards and two more scores. San Diego’s defense will need to be at its best in this game because Dayton is a ball control team and likes to grind it out rushing with the ball. The Toreros leading tackler is junior linebacker Jeff Langdon with 63 hits, 5.5 for losses, one interception and three pass blocks. Also at linebacker, sophomore Andy Guzinski has 58 stops, three tackles for loss, one interception and two kick blocks. Rounding out the leaders on the San Diego defense is their exceptionally talented DB and return specialist Gavin Ng who has accumulated 42 tackles, three interceptions, seven pass breakups and one blocked kick while also returning 24 kickoffs for a 22.7 average per return and posting an 8.4 average per return on punts. Dayton has a very strong running attack led by two dominant rushers, including their bulldozing senior fullback Geno Mattioda who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The forceful Mattioda has totaled 601 yards on 102 carries for 11 touchdowns, caught nine passes for 125 yards and one more score while also averaging 18.4 yards per kickoff return. At tailback is another aggressive ball carrier in senior Cliff Sachini with 192 carries for 951 yards and nine touchdowns, while pulling down 18 passes for 218 yards and one score and has also returned five kickoffs for an average of 26.8 per return. Quarterbacking the Flyers is junior Brandon Staley who has thrown for 1,303 yards and six touchdowns, completing 80-of-140 pass attempts while rushing for 314 yards and eight touchdowns on 99 carries. Staley’s favorite target is senior Jason Schmidt with 26 receptions for 350 yards and one score. Leading the defensive tackle scorecard is DB, junior Doug Jones with 93 hits, including 9.5 tackles for loss. Senior defensive Back Chris Fackler has 61 stops, four interceptions, six pass deflections, three blocked kicks and one forced fumble, and at a defensive end slot is senior Eric Dearth who brings 69 tackles to the table, including nine for lost yardage. My observations: Despite Dayton’s stingy rushing defense (96.6 yards rushing allowed per game) the Toreros offensive line will need to break Evan Harney through some holes that they must create, otherwise their passing game could have some problems. San Diego’s rushing defense isn’t too shabby either (119.8 yards allowed per game) so Brandon Staley will need to find his receivers more frequently to allow the running game to be effective. Keys to the Game: For San Diego, Rasmussen connecting often with his receivers and Harney getting some meaningful yards on the ground rushing. For Dayton, Geno Mattioda and Cliff Sachini need to move the ball with authority to control the clock, and keep the Toreros’ offense on the sidelines. Players to Watch: San Diego’s talented quarterback Rasmussen because it’s a pleasure to watch him throw the ball when he finds his receivers, and Harney needs looking at because he will be pressured to gain needed rushing yards, while on defense and kick returns I’d keep an eye on the speedy Gavin Ng.. Rasmussen will be the key to the Torero’s victory. For Dayton, special attention is needed by keeping your eyes focused on Geno Mattioda, especially if they are within the San Diego 10-yard line, and Cliff Sachini will be a major factor. On defense for UD the darting Chris Fackler needs watching. Mattioda will be the key to the Flyers’ victory. I will pick Dayton in this game, 35-24.
NCAA II Top Game
at Carson-Newman (8-1) over Catawba (8-1). Picking Carson-Newman to defeat Catawba at home seems like a logical choice. It’s not! Catawba is well aware of the dire consequences that a loss at Carson-Newman would ensue. There will be no surprises, but there will be a very tenacious struggle, and as exciting a game as you would hope to witness. The Eagles have a ravaging ground attack averaging 334.6 yards rushing per game while Catawba has a smothering defense that is allowing just 83.2 yards a game! This will be very interesting! Carson-Newman isn’t void in the passing game either, and junior quarterback Shane Kelley has completed 52-of-107 passes for 1,120 yards and seven touchdowns, while also striking fear into his opponents with 105 carries for 562 yards and seven TD’s. The Eagles’ leading receiver is senior Alvin Sanders with 18 catches for 389 yards and four scores. C-NC is well equipped with their rushing attack having 10 players with 15 or more carries and at least 150 yards gained each. Heading this list of ground gainers is their snappy sophomore running back J.J. Chatmon with 101 carries for 639 yards and nine touchdowns. Another sophomore running back for the Eagles is Ray Hightower who has gained 408 yards with three touchdowns on 55 carries. Sophomore linebacker Eric Solomon tops the Eagles’ tackle charts with 60, including five for losses, and at another linebacker spot is senior Robbie Tebow with 36 tackles, 8.5 behind the line with five sacks. Carson-Newman’s defensive backfield is triggered by the quick and ambitious sophomore Deonte Bolden with seven interceptions returned for 125 yards, including one for a score. The Eagles’ punt returner, sophomore Henra Chennault has averaged 12.4 yards on 14 returns, and has had nine kickoff returns for a 17.9 average per return. Catawba favors their passing attack a little more than their rushing game. The Indians junior quarterback Luke Samples has thrown for 2,014 yards completing 152-of-254 passes and 15 touchdowns. Heading the core of receivers for Samples to throw to is sophomore Corey Ready with 51 catches for 761 yards and six touchdowns while also averaging 20.5 per return on 11 kickoffs. Two other receivers with significant numbers are, Sophomore Rod Tenor with 25 receptions for 357 yards and three touchdowns, and junior Brian Flynn with 211 yards gained with two scores on 22 catches. The man you are most likely to see when they do rush with the ball is junior tailback Rodney Wallace with 170 carries for 726 yards and 10 touchdowns, while sophomore running back Mario Crowe has picked up 351 meaningful yards on 67 thrust and scored once. Catawba’s smothering defensae is perpetrated by leading tackler, sophomore linebacker SaMario Houston with 69 stops, eight tackles for loss, one interception and five pass blocks. Another speedy linebacker who penetrates through the enemy offensive line is senior Khanis Hubbard with 20 tackles for losses totaling 97 yards including 10 sacks while also registering 47 tackles and 21 quarterback hurries! One of the standouts servicing the defensive line for Catawba is junior Steven Williams with 10 tackles for loss and 17 quarterback hurries. The Indians defensive backfield is guarded by senior Jamel Jackson, 11 pass deflections and four interceptions, and senior Jemonte Battle also with 11 pass deflections and one interception. My Observations: The Eagles’ pass defense is allowing too many yards per game, and Catawba has a proliferate passing assault. If the Eagles linebackers are unable to put enough pressure on the Indians’ quarterback the Eagle defenders will be in mucho trouble. Catawba needs to just do enough rushing to have their passing attack exploit the Eagle defenders. Carson-Newman needs to pass more to make use of their dynamic rushing attack. Players to watch: For Carson-Newman J.J. Chatmon and Shane Kelley in their attempts to rush through the Catawba defensive line, also Henra Chennault on kick returns. For Catawba keep you eye on the pass combination of Luke Samples to Corey Ready. Keys to the game: Carson-Newman’s offensive line has to make openings for their running attack. Catawba must exploit the Eagles defensive backfield which is allowing 205.3 yards per game. This is scary, but I’ll take Carson-Newman 23-17.
Pittsburg State (8-1) over at Central Missouri State (8-1). This game is at Central Missouri so I must be out of my mind picking Pitt State to win since both teams are so evenly matched! The Gorillas’ have a powerful rushing attack and average 286.2 yards a game rushing. Heading the Gorillas’ corps of ball carriers is freshman running back Germaine Race with 789 yards, including 16 touchdowns on 105 carries while also catching three passes for 22 yards and one score. Junior quarterback Neal Philpot is just as mobile at running with the ball as he is passing it. Philpot has 144 carries for 873 yards and 10 touchdowns while completing 58-of-116 pass attempts for 1,166 yards and 12 TD’s. Sophomore Andy Majors has been credited with 39 carries for 279 yards and three scores and when he has taken over the quarterbacking chores, he’s completed 26-of-53 passes for 442 yards and two touchdowns. Leading receiver for Pitt State is junior Jermaine Carpenter with 20 catches for 556 yards and seven touchdowns while also returning 13 punts an average of 8.0 per return. Highlighting the Gorillas’ defense is senior lineman Aaron McConnell with 40 tackles, 17 tackles for 84 yards in losses, including 3.5 sacks, two pass breakups and three forced fumbles. Shoring up the linebacking chores are a pair of sophomores. First there is the team leader in tackles Josh Lattimer with 66, including six for losses, while Jimmy Taylor has 50 hits, eight tackles for loss, two interceptions and a blocked kick. The Mules rushing attack is centered around junior running back Kegan Coleman with 1,020 yards gained including 12 touchdowns on 166 carries while he is also dangerous as a kick returner, averaging 14.4 yards per return on five punts and 26.3 yards on 14 kickoff returns. Junior running back Lee Thompson has 123 carries for 608 yards and 15 scores while also returning 11 kickoffs for a 20.8 yards per return average. Directing the Mules offensive unit is RS-freshman Jimmy Sangster who has passed for 1,008 yards with 10 touchdowns, completing 75-of-124 passes. When the Mules do throw the ball, the likely candidate to snare it is junior wide receiver Jimmy Conner who has tucked in 33 passes for 492 yards and one score while averaging 14.3 yards per punt return. When CMU is close to paydirt and they feel they need to throw for a score, most likely it will go to their sophomore tight end Ted Maxwell who has 15 catches for 374 yards and five touchdowns. Senior defensive end Roderick Green is quick off the line, as his 19 tackles for loss will attest to. Green also registers 46 tackles, 6.5 sacks, six quarterback hurries and has recovered a fumble which he returned 26 yards for a score. Leading tackler is senior defensive back Colin Johnson with 66 hits, three for losses and one interception while junior defensive back John McPherson signs in with 36 stops, three for losses, three interceptions and eight pass blocks. Junior DB Corey Chatman checks in with three interceptions and two pass deflections. My Observations: The Gorillas have a savage rushing attack led by their evasive quarterback Neal Philpot and an offensive line that gets the job done. I look for Pitt State to try and exploit the Mules defensive line rushing. The Gorillas will need to count on wide receiver Jermaine Carpenter to evade his defenders for some prime catches to enable the running attack to go smoothly. Pitt State’s defense is very tough to penetrate on the ground so I see the Mules counting more on their passing attack. Pittsburg State is allowing just 87.0 yards rushing a game to their opponents. Players to Watch: For the Gorillas they would be Neal Philpot and Germaine Race, and if their rushing attack is stymied somewhat, Jermaine Carpenter and Aaron Bell could play a prominent roll. For Central Missouri State I would watch Kegan Coleman, he is their key to how well they will perform against Pitt State. When Pitt State has the ball, I’d watch the Mules agile defensive end Roderick Green as he penetrates through the Gorillas offensive line. Keys to the Game: For Pitt State, Philpot and Race pushing through the Mules defensive line. Aaron McDonnell must put pressure on the Mules quarterback. Philpot is the key to the Gorillas’ victory. For the Mules, Coleman will have to count on his offensive line to make some holes for him to gain needful yardage on the ground. Green needs to get into the Gorillas offensive backfield to put pressure on their quarterback. Coleman is the key for a Mules’ victory.
NCAA III Top Game
at St. John’s (8-0) over Bethel (9-0). What a matchup of D-III powers as St. John’s head football coach John Gagliardi goes for his 409th college football win which will move him pass Eddie Robinson’s record of 408. It will not be easy though as Bethel is loaded with talented players. The stadium at St. John’s, in Collegeville, Minnesota will be overflowing with fans, as well as television cameras. What a setting for this outstanding leader of men to get his 409th! St. John’s is the winningest football program all-time in NCAA Division III history with a 502-213-24 (.695) record in 93 seasons. The outcome of this game has major significance besides coach Gagliardi winning his 409th game. The winner will take over first place in the conference race and have the automatic conference bid to the NCAA Division III playoffs. The Johnnies as a team pass for 259.2 yards a game and rush for 188.2 yards per game. Leading the St. John’s passing attack is their scrappy senior quarterback Ryan Keating who has completed 164-of-244 pass attempts for 1,812 yards and 16 touchdowns. Keatings’ cast of receivers include junior Lee Clintsman who has pulled in 28 for 405 yards and six scores, and their elusive senior all-American Blake Elliott with 72 catches for 833 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 217 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. Elliott is also averaging 9.8 yards per return on punts and 25.9 yards on 12 kickoff returns. St. John’s rushing attack is supported by their talented sophomore Jake Theis with 622 yards and seven TD’s on 114 carries, while senior Josh Nelson has 76 carries for 382 yards and six scores. The defense is led by the Johnnies top tackler, freshman linebacker Jamie Steffensmeir with 70 hits, eight tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, five pass deflections and one interception, while his brother, sophomore defensive back Tony Steffensmeir has recorded two blocked kicks and 25 tackles. Leading the team in interceptions is their plucky junior linebacker Paul Gans with four, along with three pass breakups to go with his 59 tackles. The defensive line is spirited by senior Jeremy Hood with 42 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss including 7.5 sacks. The Bethel Royals are guided on offense by senior quarterback Scott Kirchoff who has passes for 1,644 yards and 13 touchdowns, completing 119-of-204 passes. Finding a target is easy for Kirchoff with senior John Kilde topping the list by grabbing 32 for 658 yards and six scores, and Jeff Lehn registering 29 catches for 366 yards and one TD. The Royals rushing attack is headed by their perky freshman I-back Phil Porta with 120 carries for 386 yards and three scores. Another offensive weapon in their arsenal of talent is senior place kicker Paul Tschetter who has converted 10-of-14 field goal attempts, including a long of 52 yards with 4-of-6 from the 40-yard line or longer. Topping the tackle list for the Royals is their mean-as-a-junkyard-dog, on the playing field that is, senior strong safety Sam Lacy with 93 stops, 10 tackles for loss and three fumble recoveries. At linebacker, senior Matt Wassink has commanded 75 hits, including six for losses, while their stealthy junior Jeremy Sather has picked-off six enemy passes with 67 return yards and one score while braking up nine other pass attempts. The defensive line is guarded by senior Scott Wessman with 28 tackles, 10 for losses, one interception, four pass deflections and three fumble recoveries. My Observations: This is what small-time college football is all about. Overflowing crowds, two well coached and spirited teams, being coached by two gentlemen that love the competition as well as the game of football. Wish I was there for this great sporting event!! In my opinion the Johnnies will need to put a little more of their offensive load on their running attack to be successful against Bethel. The Royals will probably have more success with their passing game. Both teams defenses are penetrating and suffocating. Players to Watch: For St. John’s keep your eye on the slippery Blake Elliott and matured quarterback Ryan Keating. For Bethel I’d keep a watch on their gifted wide receiver and kick returner John Kilde. On the Royals defense I would seek out linebacker Jeremy Sather. Keys to the Game: Keating of the Johnnies finding his receivers Blake Elliott and Lee Clintsmen often enough to link up for some long gainers. Also the St. John’s offensive line needs to make some holes to scoot their running backs through to gain some meaningful yardage. Elliott will be the winning factor for St. John’s. The combination of quarterback Scott Kirchoff to John Kilde can’t be overstated, that’s their bread-and-butter in making things go smoothly for them. Place kicker Paul Tschetter will be the winning factor for the Royals. In one of the best matchups in D-III this year, I am taking St. John’s in a nail-bitter, 23-21.
NAIA Top Game
MidAmerica Nazarene (10-0) over at Evangel (6-2). Evangel is on the playoff bubble after suffering a surprising loss to Missouri Valley last week, and for any chance to reach the playoffs, this is a must win. MidAmerica is coming off an easy win over William Jewell 31-6. The Pioneers are the first team in the nation with 10 wins and they could finish the regular season at 12-0, since their first game was a win over Southern Nazarene in the Wheat Bowl and did not count toward their regularly scheduled games. Evangel favors the passing attack while MidAmerica likes to rush. Evangel is led by one of the nations top passers, with their steadfast senior quarterback Brett Mitchell who has passed for 2,223 yards and 15 touchdowns, completing 159-of-286 pass attempts. The Crusaders’ number one receiver is senior Shawn Bailey with 45 catches for 791 yards and eight scores while picking up 99 more yards in kickoff returns. Junior Casey Willis has pulled in 35 passes for 380 yards and three TD’s. Evangel’s running attack is spearheaded by junior Demetric Phillips with 105 carries for 567 yards and six touchdowns. The defensive tackle chart is highlighted by senior linebacker Justin Keenoy with 73 hits, followed by senior linebacker Jarrod Carlgren with 59 stops. In the Crusaders defensive backfield the speedy senior Lee Coleman has two interceptions and four pass breakups while sophomore Beau Jackson leads the team with three interceptions. The Pioneers offensive attack is spirited by their durable senior quarterback John Booth with 1,064 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns on 172 carries, while completing 94-of-189 pass attempts for 1,402 yards and 15 scores. Catching most of Booth’s throws has been senior wide receiver Brandon Smiley with 32 for 400 yards and seven touchdowns and is averaging 30.6 yards on 11 kickoff returns and 15.3 on three punt returns. Thomas McKinney checks in with 23 catches for 461 yards and three scores. Senior running back Greg Simpson for the Pioneers has rushed for 717 yards and seven scores on 146 carries and caught 10 passes for 129 yards and three more touchdowns. Leading the defense with a sparkling 118 tackles, including nine tackles for loss, three pass blocks and four interceptions is senior linebacker Caleb Wittmer. On their defensive line, freshman lineman Jon Praeuner has 75 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, including 11 sacks for 81 yards and four pass breakups, while senior defensive end Brian Rice checks in with 30 hits, 11 for losses, four sacks and five pass deflections. My Observations: Evangel needs to find a way to contain the Pioneers John Booth who has accounted for 31 touchdowns (16 rushing and 15 passing). MidAmerica has a courageous and unyielding offensive line. The Pioneers main theme will be to stop the Crusaders quarterback by putting pressure on him to offset his passing ability. Keys to the Game: The Evangel offensive line giving Scott Mitchell enough time to find a receiver to connect with. For Evangel, Mitchell is the key to victory. For MidAmerica making openings to allow John Booth to ramble through for yardage will allow his passing game to be that much more effective. MidAmerica’s key to the victory is Booth. Players to Watch: For Evangel keep you eyes peeled on Scott Mitchell and Shawn Bailey when long yardage is needed. Also, keep an eye on Demitric Phillips who must gain some significant yardage for the Crusaders to have the victory. For MidAmerica keep your eye on John Booth and his gutsy maneuvers, and on defense look for Jon Praeuner to see just how often he can penetrate into the Evangel backfield. I like MidAmerica to come away with the win, 24-14.
Other significant games in each division follow as time permits.
First, I will list the Top Game, as I see them, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday. Other signicant game for each division will follow as time permits.
NCAA 1-AA Top Game
at Colgate (9-0) over Lehigh (6-2). Colgate’s defense struggled somewhat in their win last week at Lafayette 47-31. That must improve in this game, especially against the strong passing attack that Lehigh has. Lehigh is coming off a 35-3 pounding at home over Towson. Colgate is averaging 441.8 yards of total offense, including 257.1 yards rushing. Leading the Raiders ground assault is their durable junior tailback Jamaal Branch with 245 carries for 1,496 yards and 20 touchdowns. The second leading rusher is their quarterback, junior Chris Brown with 88 carries for 344 yards and six scores, while also completing 124-of-209 passes for 1,642 yards and 12 TD’s. Brown has a pair of capable receivers in junior J.B. Gerald with 45 catches for 481 yards and four scores and he returns punts and kickoffs. Junior Luke Graham is not far behind Gerald in receptions with 42, with a team leading 681 yards and five touchdowns. The Raiders defense is mainstayed by their dominating senior linebacker Tem Lukabu with his team leading 71 hits, including 10 for losses, five sacks and five pass breakups. The defense is also fortified by senior strong safety Sean McCune with 56 tackles, two tackles for loss, two pass breakups and two interceptions, and rounding out this staunch defense for Colgate is senior defensive tackler Josh Sabo with 28 stops, 9.5 for losses, three sacks, a pass breakup and one fumble recovery. Lehigh, which overwhelmingly prefers to throw the ball, is averaging 243.0 yards passing per game and just 114.9 rushing. Heading their passing offense is junior Kyle Keating who has completed 64-of-101 passes for 706 yards, while also maintaining the punting chores with 47 kicks for and average per kick of 38.2, with a long of 66 yards. Lehigh’s regular starting quarterback Chad Schwenk is out for the season. The Mountain Hawks like to throw to their junior tight end Adam Bergen, and he has responded with 64 receptions for 627 yards and six scores. Senior wide receiver Dave Crockett has 33 receptions for 403 yards and three touchdowns. The top rusher for Lehigh is senior running back Jermaine Pugh with 150 carries for 604 yards and one score while also catching 31 passes for 237 yards and five more TD’s. The Hawks’ defensive leader with 65 tackles is senior linebacker Tom McGeoy including seven tackles behind the line of scrimmage, one interception and three pass deflections. Another linebacker, senior Mike Gregorek has 37 tackles, 12 behind the line, five sacks and six pass blocks. One of the standouts on the defensive line for Lehigh is senior tackle Royce Morgan with 23 tackles, 10 for losses, 5.5 sacks, two pass blocks and one interception which he returned 45 yards for a touchdown. The pacesetter in the defensive backfield is senior back Trevor Micklos with 54 hits, three tackles for loss, six pass breakups and three interceptions. My observation: Lehigh is allowing just 113.5 yards rushing per game, so it becomes imperative that receivers J.B. Gerald and Luke Graham need to get open more frequently to pull in Chris Brown’s throws to enable the Raiders’ running forces to move the ball on the ground. Lehigh does not rush that often, and Colgate is allowing only 92.4 rushing yards per game anyway. The Colgate defensive backfield will be well tested in this game and have to step it up a notch. Colgate is allowing 201.3 yards passing while Lehigh averages 243.0 yards per game passing. Players to watch: For Colgate keep your eye on quarterback Chris Brown to see if he can find his receivers open enough for completions to make their one-two rushing punch of Brown, and tailback Jamaal Branch effective. For Lehigh I’d look to quarterback Kyle Keating and their shifty tight end Adam Bergen. Don’t risk becoming cross-eyes though! Keys to the Game: Strong safety Sean McCune and the rest of the Raiders’ defensive backfield stopping the Hawks’ passing game. For Lehigh, Jermaine Pugh will need to gain some significant yards to enable the passing attack to work at its consummate best. I like Colgate in this one 26-20.
NCAA 1-AA MID-MAJOR Top Game
at Dayton (9-1) over San Diego (7-2). Let’s face it! It’s so very hard to have an unbeaten season, even when you have an exceptionally good team, but that loss the Flyers took at home to Valparaiso earlier this season is coming back to haunt this talented troupe of players. San Diego could also be challenging for the conference championship if they only had a more taut defense. Putting all that behind and laying it to rest, I expect both teams to give their all in this game since it is probably the final football game for both schools this season, and I expect it to be a high-scoring affair. The Toreros from San Diego are led on offense by one of the nations leading passers and all-America candidate, senior quarterback Eric Rasmussen. The 6’3”, 217 pound Rasmussen holds most all the passing records at San Diego and was an honorable mention all-American last year. The strong armed Rasmussen has completed 174-of-286 passes for 29 touchdowns and 2,677 yards this season, while also rushing for 45 yards. Claiming most of his tosses is sophomore wide receiver Adam Hannula with 63 for 983 yards and 12 scores while sophomore Nick Garton has pulled in 43 passes for 783 yards and 10 TD’s. The Toreros ground assault is paced by sophomore running back Evan Harney with 1,260 yards gained with 17 touchdowns on 253 carries while also catching 17 passes for 233 yards and two more scores. San Diego’s defense will need to be at its best in this game because Dayton is a ball control team and likes to grind it out rushing with the ball. The Toreros leading tackler is junior linebacker Jeff Langdon with 63 hits, 5.5 for losses, one interception and three pass blocks. Also at linebacker, sophomore Andy Guzinski has 58 stops, three tackles for loss, one interception and two kick blocks. Rounding out the leaders on the San Diego defense is their exceptionally talented DB and return specialist Gavin Ng who has accumulated 42 tackles, three interceptions, seven pass breakups and one blocked kick while also returning 24 kickoffs for a 22.7 average per return and posting an 8.4 average per return on punts. Dayton has a very strong running attack led by two dominant rushers, including their bulldozing senior fullback Geno Mattioda who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The forceful Mattioda has totaled 601 yards on 102 carries for 11 touchdowns, caught nine passes for 125 yards and one more score while also averaging 18.4 yards per kickoff return. At tailback is another aggressive ball carrier in senior Cliff Sachini with 192 carries for 951 yards and nine touchdowns, while pulling down 18 passes for 218 yards and one score and has also returned five kickoffs for an average of 26.8 per return. Quarterbacking the Flyers is junior Brandon Staley who has thrown for 1,303 yards and six touchdowns, completing 80-of-140 pass attempts while rushing for 314 yards and eight touchdowns on 99 carries. Staley’s favorite target is senior Jason Schmidt with 26 receptions for 350 yards and one score. Leading the defensive tackle scorecard is DB, junior Doug Jones with 93 hits, including 9.5 tackles for loss. Senior defensive Back Chris Fackler has 61 stops, four interceptions, six pass deflections, three blocked kicks and one forced fumble, and at a defensive end slot is senior Eric Dearth who brings 69 tackles to the table, including nine for lost yardage. My observations: Despite Dayton’s stingy rushing defense (96.6 yards rushing allowed per game) the Toreros offensive line will need to break Evan Harney through some holes that they must create, otherwise their passing game could have some problems. San Diego’s rushing defense isn’t too shabby either (119.8 yards allowed per game) so Brandon Staley will need to find his receivers more frequently to allow the running game to be effective. Keys to the Game: For San Diego, Rasmussen connecting often with his receivers and Harney getting some meaningful yards on the ground rushing. For Dayton, Geno Mattioda and Cliff Sachini need to move the ball with authority to control the clock, and keep the Toreros’ offense on the sidelines. Players to Watch: San Diego’s talented quarterback Rasmussen because it’s a pleasure to watch him throw the ball when he finds his receivers, and Harney needs looking at because he will be pressured to gain needed rushing yards, while on defense and kick returns I’d keep an eye on the speedy Gavin Ng.. Rasmussen will be the key to the Torero’s victory. For Dayton, special attention is needed by keeping your eyes focused on Geno Mattioda, especially if they are within the San Diego 10-yard line, and Cliff Sachini will be a major factor. On defense for UD the darting Chris Fackler needs watching. Mattioda will be the key to the Flyers’ victory. I will pick Dayton in this game, 35-24.
NCAA II Top Game
at Carson-Newman (8-1) over Catawba (8-1). Picking Carson-Newman to defeat Catawba at home seems like a logical choice. It’s not! Catawba is well aware of the dire consequences that a loss at Carson-Newman would ensue. There will be no surprises, but there will be a very tenacious struggle, and as exciting a game as you would hope to witness. The Eagles have a ravaging ground attack averaging 334.6 yards rushing per game while Catawba has a smothering defense that is allowing just 83.2 yards a game! This will be very interesting! Carson-Newman isn’t void in the passing game either, and junior quarterback Shane Kelley has completed 52-of-107 passes for 1,120 yards and seven touchdowns, while also striking fear into his opponents with 105 carries for 562 yards and seven TD’s. The Eagles’ leading receiver is senior Alvin Sanders with 18 catches for 389 yards and four scores. C-NC is well equipped with their rushing attack having 10 players with 15 or more carries and at least 150 yards gained each. Heading this list of ground gainers is their snappy sophomore running back J.J. Chatmon with 101 carries for 639 yards and nine touchdowns. Another sophomore running back for the Eagles is Ray Hightower who has gained 408 yards with three touchdowns on 55 carries. Sophomore linebacker Eric Solomon tops the Eagles’ tackle charts with 60, including five for losses, and at another linebacker spot is senior Robbie Tebow with 36 tackles, 8.5 behind the line with five sacks. Carson-Newman’s defensive backfield is triggered by the quick and ambitious sophomore Deonte Bolden with seven interceptions returned for 125 yards, including one for a score. The Eagles’ punt returner, sophomore Henra Chennault has averaged 12.4 yards on 14 returns, and has had nine kickoff returns for a 17.9 average per return. Catawba favors their passing attack a little more than their rushing game. The Indians junior quarterback Luke Samples has thrown for 2,014 yards completing 152-of-254 passes and 15 touchdowns. Heading the core of receivers for Samples to throw to is sophomore Corey Ready with 51 catches for 761 yards and six touchdowns while also averaging 20.5 per return on 11 kickoffs. Two other receivers with significant numbers are, Sophomore Rod Tenor with 25 receptions for 357 yards and three touchdowns, and junior Brian Flynn with 211 yards gained with two scores on 22 catches. The man you are most likely to see when they do rush with the ball is junior tailback Rodney Wallace with 170 carries for 726 yards and 10 touchdowns, while sophomore running back Mario Crowe has picked up 351 meaningful yards on 67 thrust and scored once. Catawba’s smothering defensae is perpetrated by leading tackler, sophomore linebacker SaMario Houston with 69 stops, eight tackles for loss, one interception and five pass blocks. Another speedy linebacker who penetrates through the enemy offensive line is senior Khanis Hubbard with 20 tackles for losses totaling 97 yards including 10 sacks while also registering 47 tackles and 21 quarterback hurries! One of the standouts servicing the defensive line for Catawba is junior Steven Williams with 10 tackles for loss and 17 quarterback hurries. The Indians defensive backfield is guarded by senior Jamel Jackson, 11 pass deflections and four interceptions, and senior Jemonte Battle also with 11 pass deflections and one interception. My Observations: The Eagles’ pass defense is allowing too many yards per game, and Catawba has a proliferate passing assault. If the Eagles linebackers are unable to put enough pressure on the Indians’ quarterback the Eagle defenders will be in mucho trouble. Catawba needs to just do enough rushing to have their passing attack exploit the Eagle defenders. Carson-Newman needs to pass more to make use of their dynamic rushing attack. Players to watch: For Carson-Newman J.J. Chatmon and Shane Kelley in their attempts to rush through the Catawba defensive line, also Henra Chennault on kick returns. For Catawba keep you eye on the pass combination of Luke Samples to Corey Ready. Keys to the game: Carson-Newman’s offensive line has to make openings for their running attack. Catawba must exploit the Eagles defensive backfield which is allowing 205.3 yards per game. This is scary, but I’ll take Carson-Newman 23-17.
Pittsburg State (8-1) over at Central Missouri State (8-1). This game is at Central Missouri so I must be out of my mind picking Pitt State to win since both teams are so evenly matched! The Gorillas’ have a powerful rushing attack and average 286.2 yards a game rushing. Heading the Gorillas’ corps of ball carriers is freshman running back Germaine Race with 789 yards, including 16 touchdowns on 105 carries while also catching three passes for 22 yards and one score. Junior quarterback Neal Philpot is just as mobile at running with the ball as he is passing it. Philpot has 144 carries for 873 yards and 10 touchdowns while completing 58-of-116 pass attempts for 1,166 yards and 12 TD’s. Sophomore Andy Majors has been credited with 39 carries for 279 yards and three scores and when he has taken over the quarterbacking chores, he’s completed 26-of-53 passes for 442 yards and two touchdowns. Leading receiver for Pitt State is junior Jermaine Carpenter with 20 catches for 556 yards and seven touchdowns while also returning 13 punts an average of 8.0 per return. Highlighting the Gorillas’ defense is senior lineman Aaron McConnell with 40 tackles, 17 tackles for 84 yards in losses, including 3.5 sacks, two pass breakups and three forced fumbles. Shoring up the linebacking chores are a pair of sophomores. First there is the team leader in tackles Josh Lattimer with 66, including six for losses, while Jimmy Taylor has 50 hits, eight tackles for loss, two interceptions and a blocked kick. The Mules rushing attack is centered around junior running back Kegan Coleman with 1,020 yards gained including 12 touchdowns on 166 carries while he is also dangerous as a kick returner, averaging 14.4 yards per return on five punts and 26.3 yards on 14 kickoff returns. Junior running back Lee Thompson has 123 carries for 608 yards and 15 scores while also returning 11 kickoffs for a 20.8 yards per return average. Directing the Mules offensive unit is RS-freshman Jimmy Sangster who has passed for 1,008 yards with 10 touchdowns, completing 75-of-124 passes. When the Mules do throw the ball, the likely candidate to snare it is junior wide receiver Jimmy Conner who has tucked in 33 passes for 492 yards and one score while averaging 14.3 yards per punt return. When CMU is close to paydirt and they feel they need to throw for a score, most likely it will go to their sophomore tight end Ted Maxwell who has 15 catches for 374 yards and five touchdowns. Senior defensive end Roderick Green is quick off the line, as his 19 tackles for loss will attest to. Green also registers 46 tackles, 6.5 sacks, six quarterback hurries and has recovered a fumble which he returned 26 yards for a score. Leading tackler is senior defensive back Colin Johnson with 66 hits, three for losses and one interception while junior defensive back John McPherson signs in with 36 stops, three for losses, three interceptions and eight pass blocks. Junior DB Corey Chatman checks in with three interceptions and two pass deflections. My Observations: The Gorillas have a savage rushing attack led by their evasive quarterback Neal Philpot and an offensive line that gets the job done. I look for Pitt State to try and exploit the Mules defensive line rushing. The Gorillas will need to count on wide receiver Jermaine Carpenter to evade his defenders for some prime catches to enable the running attack to go smoothly. Pitt State’s defense is very tough to penetrate on the ground so I see the Mules counting more on their passing attack. Pittsburg State is allowing just 87.0 yards rushing a game to their opponents. Players to Watch: For the Gorillas they would be Neal Philpot and Germaine Race, and if their rushing attack is stymied somewhat, Jermaine Carpenter and Aaron Bell could play a prominent roll. For Central Missouri State I would watch Kegan Coleman, he is their key to how well they will perform against Pitt State. When Pitt State has the ball, I’d watch the Mules agile defensive end Roderick Green as he penetrates through the Gorillas offensive line. Keys to the Game: For Pitt State, Philpot and Race pushing through the Mules defensive line. Aaron McDonnell must put pressure on the Mules quarterback. Philpot is the key to the Gorillas’ victory. For the Mules, Coleman will have to count on his offensive line to make some holes for him to gain needful yardage on the ground. Green needs to get into the Gorillas offensive backfield to put pressure on their quarterback. Coleman is the key for a Mules’ victory.
NCAA III Top Game
at St. John’s (8-0) over Bethel (9-0). What a matchup of D-III powers as St. John’s head football coach John Gagliardi goes for his 409th college football win which will move him pass Eddie Robinson’s record of 408. It will not be easy though as Bethel is loaded with talented players. The stadium at St. John’s, in Collegeville, Minnesota will be overflowing with fans, as well as television cameras. What a setting for this outstanding leader of men to get his 409th! St. John’s is the winningest football program all-time in NCAA Division III history with a 502-213-24 (.695) record in 93 seasons. The outcome of this game has major significance besides coach Gagliardi winning his 409th game. The winner will take over first place in the conference race and have the automatic conference bid to the NCAA Division III playoffs. The Johnnies as a team pass for 259.2 yards a game and rush for 188.2 yards per game. Leading the St. John’s passing attack is their scrappy senior quarterback Ryan Keating who has completed 164-of-244 pass attempts for 1,812 yards and 16 touchdowns. Keatings’ cast of receivers include junior Lee Clintsman who has pulled in 28 for 405 yards and six scores, and their elusive senior all-American Blake Elliott with 72 catches for 833 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 217 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. Elliott is also averaging 9.8 yards per return on punts and 25.9 yards on 12 kickoff returns. St. John’s rushing attack is supported by their talented sophomore Jake Theis with 622 yards and seven TD’s on 114 carries, while senior Josh Nelson has 76 carries for 382 yards and six scores. The defense is led by the Johnnies top tackler, freshman linebacker Jamie Steffensmeir with 70 hits, eight tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, five pass deflections and one interception, while his brother, sophomore defensive back Tony Steffensmeir has recorded two blocked kicks and 25 tackles. Leading the team in interceptions is their plucky junior linebacker Paul Gans with four, along with three pass breakups to go with his 59 tackles. The defensive line is spirited by senior Jeremy Hood with 42 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss including 7.5 sacks. The Bethel Royals are guided on offense by senior quarterback Scott Kirchoff who has passes for 1,644 yards and 13 touchdowns, completing 119-of-204 passes. Finding a target is easy for Kirchoff with senior John Kilde topping the list by grabbing 32 for 658 yards and six scores, and Jeff Lehn registering 29 catches for 366 yards and one TD. The Royals rushing attack is headed by their perky freshman I-back Phil Porta with 120 carries for 386 yards and three scores. Another offensive weapon in their arsenal of talent is senior place kicker Paul Tschetter who has converted 10-of-14 field goal attempts, including a long of 52 yards with 4-of-6 from the 40-yard line or longer. Topping the tackle list for the Royals is their mean-as-a-junkyard-dog, on the playing field that is, senior strong safety Sam Lacy with 93 stops, 10 tackles for loss and three fumble recoveries. At linebacker, senior Matt Wassink has commanded 75 hits, including six for losses, while their stealthy junior Jeremy Sather has picked-off six enemy passes with 67 return yards and one score while braking up nine other pass attempts. The defensive line is guarded by senior Scott Wessman with 28 tackles, 10 for losses, one interception, four pass deflections and three fumble recoveries. My Observations: This is what small-time college football is all about. Overflowing crowds, two well coached and spirited teams, being coached by two gentlemen that love the competition as well as the game of football. Wish I was there for this great sporting event!! In my opinion the Johnnies will need to put a little more of their offensive load on their running attack to be successful against Bethel. The Royals will probably have more success with their passing game. Both teams defenses are penetrating and suffocating. Players to Watch: For St. John’s keep your eye on the slippery Blake Elliott and matured quarterback Ryan Keating. For Bethel I’d keep a watch on their gifted wide receiver and kick returner John Kilde. On the Royals defense I would seek out linebacker Jeremy Sather. Keys to the Game: Keating of the Johnnies finding his receivers Blake Elliott and Lee Clintsmen often enough to link up for some long gainers. Also the St. John’s offensive line needs to make some holes to scoot their running backs through to gain some meaningful yardage. Elliott will be the winning factor for St. John’s. The combination of quarterback Scott Kirchoff to John Kilde can’t be overstated, that’s their bread-and-butter in making things go smoothly for them. Place kicker Paul Tschetter will be the winning factor for the Royals. In one of the best matchups in D-III this year, I am taking St. John’s in a nail-bitter, 23-21.
NAIA Top Game
MidAmerica Nazarene (10-0) over at Evangel (6-2). Evangel is on the playoff bubble after suffering a surprising loss to Missouri Valley last week, and for any chance to reach the playoffs, this is a must win. MidAmerica is coming off an easy win over William Jewell 31-6. The Pioneers are the first team in the nation with 10 wins and they could finish the regular season at 12-0, since their first game was a win over Southern Nazarene in the Wheat Bowl and did not count toward their regularly scheduled games. Evangel favors the passing attack while MidAmerica likes to rush. Evangel is led by one of the nations top passers, with their steadfast senior quarterback Brett Mitchell who has passed for 2,223 yards and 15 touchdowns, completing 159-of-286 pass attempts. The Crusaders’ number one receiver is senior Shawn Bailey with 45 catches for 791 yards and eight scores while picking up 99 more yards in kickoff returns. Junior Casey Willis has pulled in 35 passes for 380 yards and three TD’s. Evangel’s running attack is spearheaded by junior Demetric Phillips with 105 carries for 567 yards and six touchdowns. The defensive tackle chart is highlighted by senior linebacker Justin Keenoy with 73 hits, followed by senior linebacker Jarrod Carlgren with 59 stops. In the Crusaders defensive backfield the speedy senior Lee Coleman has two interceptions and four pass breakups while sophomore Beau Jackson leads the team with three interceptions. The Pioneers offensive attack is spirited by their durable senior quarterback John Booth with 1,064 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns on 172 carries, while completing 94-of-189 pass attempts for 1,402 yards and 15 scores. Catching most of Booth’s throws has been senior wide receiver Brandon Smiley with 32 for 400 yards and seven touchdowns and is averaging 30.6 yards on 11 kickoff returns and 15.3 on three punt returns. Thomas McKinney checks in with 23 catches for 461 yards and three scores. Senior running back Greg Simpson for the Pioneers has rushed for 717 yards and seven scores on 146 carries and caught 10 passes for 129 yards and three more touchdowns. Leading the defense with a sparkling 118 tackles, including nine tackles for loss, three pass blocks and four interceptions is senior linebacker Caleb Wittmer. On their defensive line, freshman lineman Jon Praeuner has 75 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, including 11 sacks for 81 yards and four pass breakups, while senior defensive end Brian Rice checks in with 30 hits, 11 for losses, four sacks and five pass deflections. My Observations: Evangel needs to find a way to contain the Pioneers John Booth who has accounted for 31 touchdowns (16 rushing and 15 passing). MidAmerica has a courageous and unyielding offensive line. The Pioneers main theme will be to stop the Crusaders quarterback by putting pressure on him to offset his passing ability. Keys to the Game: The Evangel offensive line giving Scott Mitchell enough time to find a receiver to connect with. For Evangel, Mitchell is the key to victory. For MidAmerica making openings to allow John Booth to ramble through for yardage will allow his passing game to be that much more effective. MidAmerica’s key to the victory is Booth. Players to Watch: For Evangel keep you eyes peeled on Scott Mitchell and Shawn Bailey when long yardage is needed. Also, keep an eye on Demitric Phillips who must gain some significant yardage for the Crusaders to have the victory. For MidAmerica keep your eye on John Booth and his gutsy maneuvers, and on defense look for Jon Praeuner to see just how often he can penetrate into the Evangel backfield. I like MidAmerica to come away with the win, 24-14.
Other significant games in each division follow as time permits.
posted by Don @ 11/06/2003 04:20:00 AM
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