Football Gazette's Small College Football Blog

Don Hansen's Football Gazette Blog of information, comments, notes, and tidebits on Small College Football. NCAA 1-AA & Mid Major, Division II & Mid Major, Division III, NAIA, and NCCAA

Friday, November 14, 2003

Top Game Analysis for Saturday 11/15

All 245 of my predictions for this weeks games can be found on the Football Gazette website [use link on the right side to get there] and then click on Don's predictions.

First, I will list the Top Game, as I see them, for each of the four divisions (NCAA 1-AA, II, III and NAIA) this Saturday. As time permits I will post more analysis on Friday evening.

NCAA 1-AA Top Game
at Delaware (9-1) over Massachusetts (9-1). Delaware is coming off an upset loss at pre-season conference favorite Northeastern, while UMass won at home against Richmond. Both coaches have been very successful over the years. I remember coach K.C. Keeler from his days at Rowan University where he was more likely than not to be in the Division III finals. I recall coach Mark Whipple from the years that he coached those great teams at Division II New Haven. Both these coaches are winners! This is a very tough game to predict. The Blue Hens are led by their very productive senior quarterback Andy Hall. Hall is quite adept at rushing as well as passing the ball and has gained 532 yards on 105 carries with six scores, while also completing 145-of-234 passes for 1,807 yards and 17 touchdowns. The three preeminent receivers for Hall to connect with are, sophomore Brian Ingram with a team-leading 35 receptions for 486 yards and three scores, the ever dangerous sophomore David Boler has brought down 24 passes for 339 yards and four touchdowns while also returning 12 kickoffs for an average of 22.1 yards per return. Rounding out this sophomore trio of receivers is Justin Long with 24 catches for 289 yards and two TDs. The paramount rusher for Delaware is their bulldozing senior running back Germaine Bennett with 189 carries for 941 yards and 10 scores. The Blue Hens defensive standouts start with senior defensive lineman Shawn Johnson with 45 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks and four pass deflections. The two mainstays at linebacker are junior Mondoe Davis, with a team-leading 66 tackles and three sacks, while sophomore John Mulhern has 62 stops, 6.5 tackles for loss, one interception and four pass blocks. Noticeable in the defensive backfield for the Hens’ is junior Sid Haugabrook with 56 tackles, five pass breakups and two interceptions returning one 39 yards for a score. The Minutemen’s offense is generated by their creative senior quarterback Jeff Krohn who has thrown for 2,189 yards and 21 touchdowns, completing 171-of-314 passes. Junior Jason Peebler leads all Umass receivers with 36 catches for 736 yards and eight touchdowns. Also worthy of note among the Hens’ receiving corps are Junior Dominick Stewart with 30 receptions for 359 yards and two scores, and senior Jimmy Howard who has pulled in 28 of Krohn’s tosses for 424 yards and four scores while also averaging 22.8 yards on 11 kickoff returns. Though the Minutemen do not rush as often as they pass, they do have a couple of very good running backs in sophomore tailback Steve Baylark who has ground out the most yards with 878 on 199 carries with eight touchdowns. Junior fullback Rich Demers has contributed on the ground with 107 carries for 576 yards and four touchdowns while also catching 28 balls for 203 yards and five TDs. The defensive headliner for UMass is junior defensive back Steve Costello with 47 tackles, five for losses, six interceptions, five pass blocks and one fumble recovery which he returned 35 yards for a touchdown, and he is also averaging 8.4 yards on 18 punt returns. Topping the tackle chart is senior linebacker Mark Kimener with 102, including nine behind the line of scrimmage with three sacks, two interceptions and two pass deflections. My Observations: Delaware’s defensive back Sid Haugabrook will be a very busy man attempting to catch up with the Minutemen’s speedy receivers. Delaware will need to pass a little more than usual in this game to compensate for their running game as the Minutemen are allowing just 105.7 yards rushing a game. Massachusetts likes to pass and that is what they will do for the most part. UMass has several flashy receivers and I expect that Hall will have a field day if Delaware’s defensive line has problems putting pressure on him. Keys to the game: The Minutemen’s quarterback Krohn connecting with his receivers frequently, with Steve Baylock and Rich Demers gaining urgent yardage on the ground. Delaware needs to try their ground attack early so their passing game is successful. Players to Watch: for the Minutemen it would be Jeff Krohn and Jason Peebler as those two will be the winning combination for Massachusetts and Sid Haugabrook for his defensive pass coverage. For Delaware keep your eye on Andy Hall and Germaine Bennett as they try to gain yards on the ground, which will be the key to their victory. Also Shawn Johnson as he puts pressure on the UMass quarterback. In a squeaker I’ll take Delaware at home 21-19.

at Colgate (10-0) over Fordham (9-2). Both head coaches, in this clash of football titans, have turned 0-11 teams around when they came to their respective schools into formidable and dynamic football programs. Colgate’s head coach Dick Biddle is now in his eighth year as head mentor of the Raiders and has achieved a 64-26 record during that span. Coach Biddle Has guided his charges to the Patriot league title three times and has made three appearances in the 1-AA playoffs. Fordham’s coach Dave Clawson, in his fifth season as the Rams head coach, led his team to the quarterfinals of the 1-AA playoffs in 2002. Both coaches have differing offensive philosophies. Colgate favors a ground attack while Fordham likes to put it in the air. Colgate’s ground assault is engineered by their steamrolling junior tailback Jamaal Branch who has picked up 1,615 yards and scored 20 touchdowns on 277 carries (5.83 avg.) Their other tailback has chipped in with 217 yards on 39 carries. All this is directed by the Raiders creative quarterback Chris Brown. Brown has completed 132-of-228 passes for 1,732 yards and 12 scores while also being one of the leading rushers for Colgate with his 385 yards on the ground and eight TDs on 103 carries. Three Raider receivers that are worthy of note are senior J.B. Gerald with 49 catches for 531 yards with four scores while also returning 27 punts and 20 kickoffs. Junior Luke Graham has 45 receptions for 714 yards and five touchdowns, and at tight end senior John Frieser has gained 269 yards on 19 catches with three scores. The Raiders’ senior all-American candidate, linebacker Tem Lukabu tops the tackle chart with 79, including 10 for losses with five sacks, six pass breakups and two fumble recoveries. Their defensive line is mainstayed by senior tackle Josh Sabo with 31 stops, 10.5 for lost yardage with four sacks and four pass breakups. Colgate has two stellar defensive backs patrolling the backfield with strong safety Sean McCune leading the way with 58 hits, two pass deflections and two interception, returning one for a touchdown, and sophomore cornerback Chris Williams rings the tackle charts with 21 stops to go along with two forced fumbles, six pass blocks and two interceptions. Fordham’s formidable offense is programmed by their energetic all-conference first-team senior quarterback Kevin Eakin, who has thrown for an eye-popping 2,629 yards and 19 touchdowns, completing 218-of-345 passes (63.2 percent). Spearing by far, most of Eakin’s tosses is senior Javarus Dudley with 84 receptions for 1,121 yards and 10 scores. Junior Steve Porco has tucked in 36 passes for 501 yards and one TD, while senior tight end Travis Johnson has caught 21 for 231 yards. The Rams can also grind it out when necessary with their pile-driving senior running back Kirwin Watson who has gained 1,343 yards with 20 scores on 272 carries while also being the recipient of 24 passes for 215 yards and one more TD. On defense for the Rams and heading the hit list is junior linebacker NaQuinton Gainous with 69 stops, 2.5 for losses, one interception and two pass breakups. Fordham has one of the better pass defenses in the nation with several all-stars policing the area, including the Sergeant-at-arms out there, senior Tad Kornegay with 57 tackles, two interceptions, 14 pass deflections and one blocked kick. Also in the defensive backfield are junior Tyrone Thorne with 58 hits, eight for losses, including six sacks, one pass breakup and one blocked kick, and senior Will Davis hits the tackle list with 51, and has totaled one interception and six pass breakups. Another DB worthy of mention is senior Dan McGrath with 53 stops, two for negative yardage, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries and is averaging 11.5 yards on 13 punt returns. My Observations: Colgate’s Jamaal Branch will be called on more frequently in this game to propel his body through the Fordham defensive line to control the clock with his rushing. Chris Brown will find it more difficult to pass over the Rams stingy pass defense. Tight end John Frieser may get more action in this game. For Fordham: The Rams will probably stay with their usual game plan. Kevin Eaken, Kirwin Watson and Javarus Dudley will be involved in almost all the offensive yards the Rams gain. Players to Watch: For Colgate. Jamaal Branch is as an exciting a runner as you could possibly want to see. Chris Brown with his accomplished moves as he fakes the pass and tucks it in for a quarterback sneak. On defense all-American candidate Tem Lukabu has some great moves and will go crashing through the opponents offensive line like a thunder bolt. For Fordham: All-American candidate Kevin Eakin with his smooth delivery via the airways to his favorite receiver Javarus Dudley. Kirwin Watson will keep things honest by gaining essential yards on the ground. On defense my choice to keep an eye on would be Tad Kornegay. In a low-scoring game I’ll take Colgate 16-10. However, this could also turn into a high-scoring affair.

NCAA II Top Game
at Emporia State (9-1) over Central Missouri (8-2). Emporia State’s likable head coach Dave Wiemers has guided the Hornets to an 18-4 record in only his second year at the school, which includes a win in the Mineral Water Bowl in 2002. Central Missouri State’s head coach Willie Fritz, now in his seventh season, has posted a 55-23 mark as head coach of the Mules. Fritz led the Mules to their first 10 win season last year and a trip to the NCAA II playoffs, and in 2001 his Mules hit the win column in the Mineral Water Bowl. Emporia State counts heavily on their quarterback Tad Hatfield along with running back Tyler Paul. The on-the-field leadership of the poised Hatfield has the Hornets thinking of grabbing their first-ever MIAA conference title. Hatfield, a junior, has thrown for 2,036 yards and 16 touchdowns, completing 156-of-295 passes. Senior Tyler Paul has gained 1,476 yards on the ground with 11 TDs on 277 carries. Senior wide receiver Andre Day has been Hatfield’s favorite target, pulling down 49 tosses for 522 yards and seven scores. Sophomore J.J. Richards has 40 receptions for 653 yards and five touchdowns to his credit. Also a looming offensive threat for the Hornets is junior place kicker Justin Gray who’s connected on 14-for-22 field goal attempts, including a long of 51 yards. Topping the Hornets tackle chart is senior safety Brad Johnson with 79 hits and one interception. Also roving in the defensive backfield for ESU is senior safety Josh Oldfather who has racked up 45 tackles, four interceptions, six pass deflections and one blocked kick while also returning 11 kickoffs. Junior cornerback Luke Waller has registered 23 stops, three interceptions, 11 pass blocks and one fumble recovery while also serving as their primary punt returner with 30. Another defensive player that needs mentioning for ESU is junior linebacker Eddie Reynolds with a team-leading 12 tackles for loss on 63 total tackles and one interception. The main man for the Mules is junior running back Kegan Coleman with 169 carries for 1,083 yards and 12 touchdowns. The very explosive Coleman has also returned 16 kickoffs for an average of 28.2 yards per return and is averaging 14.4 yards on five punt returns. Junior Lee Thompson has added 652 rushing yards to the Mules coffer and scored 15 touchdowns on 132 carries. Red Shirt freshman quarterback Jimmy Sangster has guided the Mules to an 8-2 record with a shot at making the playoffs. Sangster has completed 90-of-154 passes for 1,242 yards with 12 touchdowns. Heading the receiving corps is their swift junior wide receiver Jimmy Conner with 39 catches for 629 yards and two TDs, while also returning 28 punts an average of 14.0 yards per return including one score. CMU’s tight end, sophomore Ted Maxwell has 18 receptions for 396 yards and six scores. Their defense features junior defensive back Colin Johnson with a team-leading 77 tackles, including four tackles for loss and one interception. The Mules junior linebacker Jason Vanloo has 72 stops with 10 for losses and one interception while senior defensive end Roderick Green has brought down 56 of the enemy, including 19 behind the line with 6.5 sacks, two pass blocks and one fumble recovery. My Observations: Emporia State will pass more than usual in this game and Hatfield will need to be alert to find his receivers. Tyler Paul must break loose for some long gainers. CMU’s Kegan Coleman may have trouble gaining the necessary yardage on the ground, and if that happens, the Mules will have to count on their youthful quarterback Jimmy Sangster to propel the ball in the air with enough success to make the running attack work. Players to Watch: For ESU keep your eye on their powerful running back Tyler Paul and quarterback Tad Hatfield’s polished tosses to J.J. Richard and Andre Day. Again for Emporia State, if this game is very close, as I expect it will be, the magic foot of place kicker Justin Gray could play a major roll in the victory. The Mules running back Kegan Coleman is an exciting player and fun to watch, especially on kick returns. Sangster must keep his cool to deliver the victory for the Mules.

NCAA III Top Game
Wheaton (9-0) over at Augustana (7-2). The Wheaton football program has been steered by their enthusiastic coach Mike Swider for the past eight years. During those eight years he has posted a 49-19 record, while in 2002 took his Thunder protégés to the second-round of the NCAA III playoffs where they lost to eventual national champion Mount Union. This is head coach Jim Barnes fourth year at the helm of the Vikings football program and he has sparked the team to a 31-9 record. The Wheaton offense is directed by senior quarterback Chad Bradley who has thrown for 2,103 yards and 15 touchdowns, completing 145-of-232 passes. Bradley has a number of sure hands to toss to, including senior Andrew King with a team-leading 54 receptions for 647 yards and two touchdowns. Among other receivers deserving mention are, junior Colin Sinclair with 35 grabs for 507 yards and five scores and the very pesky and eruptive junior Brad Musso has 46 catches for 875 yards and eight TDs and this elusive speedster has also returned 20 punts for an average of 17.9 yards a return which includes two for touchdowns. Despite the passing prowess shown by the Thunder, they actually have gained slightly more offensive yards rushing. Heading the list of running backs is senior Dan Price with 181 carries for 992 yards and nine scores while junior teammate Garrett Granberg has 621 yards on the ground including seven touchdowns on 137 carries. Wheaton’s defense, which will be sorely tested by the Viking ground game is led by senior linebacker Tom McAndrew with 59 hits, seven for losses and one interception, while in the backfield is Shawn Wildt with 57 stops, four tackles for loss, six pass blocks and four interceptions with 81 return yards. Another standout at a DB spot is senior Michael Drach with 32 tackles, three interceptions and five pass deflection. As just about everyone knows, Augustana’s offense is geared around their ground attack, very seldom do the Vikings pass (78.2 yards passing per game). Augustana is averaging 257.6 yards a game rushing and have nine players with 15 or more carries so far this season. Heading this ground assault is senior running back Kyle Zick with 126 carries for 633 yards and four touchdowns while also catching six passes for 92 yards, and averaging 17.4 yards on five punt returns. Checking in with 425 yards on 76 carries with three scores is sophomore Aaron Kuzniar who has also caught three balls for 52 yards. Senior quarterback Brad Wendell directs this ground assault, but has also completed 39-of-82 passes for 683 yards and 11 touchdowns, So if the Vikings have to, they can put it in the air when needed. Junior split end Travis Temple has been the most consistent receiver for Wendell when a pass play is called for, and has 11 catches for 221 yards and a very productive seven touchdowns. They also have another offensive weapon who just could make the difference in the outcome of this game in their fine junior place kicker Michael Clark who has connected on 7-of-10 field goal attempts with a long of 54 yards, including 3-of-6 from 40 yards or longer. The Vikings who take a lot of pride in their defense, are led by their leading tackler, junior linebacker Steve Szpejnowski with 77 hits, seven for losses and two pass blocks. On the defensive line is Justin Georgacakis with 47 stops, a team-leading 14 tackles for loss and two pass deflections, while team sack leader, senior defensive end Mike Hansen has 40 tackles, 12 behind the line, including seven sacks and three pass breakups. The Augustana defensive backfield is enthusiastically defended by senior Matt Furlong with 55 tackles, eight for losses, two interceptions and six passes defended while Alex Arguello has totaled 20 tackles, four picks, two pass breakups and one blocked kick. My Observations: I think it will be very hard to run against the Augie defense so I expect the Thunder to lean more frequently to an air attack in this game. Expect quarterback Chad Bradley to utilize all his receivers in this one, although the speedy Brad Musso might turn out to be his favorite target to throw to. Though I think the Vikings would have some success passing the ball in this game, their passing game is not that effective, so I expect them to use Kyle Zick and Aaron Kuzniar to get the job done on the ground, counting on their very effective offensive line to make openings for them. Players to Watch: Wheaton’s Dan Price who is averaging 5.5 yards per rush and Chad Bradley’s pinpoint passing. Brad Musso could be the winning factor for Wheaton as the speedy receiver should get several catches and will be very dangerous if he has a chance to return a punt. On defense Tom McAndrews will be called on to help stop the Augie running game. For the Vikings, Kyle Zick’s rushing, and in critical situations look for Travis Temple to snare a ball or two. Michael Clark could very well be the winning factor for the Vikings with his foot. Justin Georgacakis and Mike Hansen will try to power through the Thunder offensive line to ambush the quarterback. In a cliff-hanger I’ll go with Wheaton, 20-17.

NAIA Top Game
at Lambuth (8-2) over Cumberland (KY) (8-1). Head coach Vic Wallace has won three conference titles and taken his team to the NAIA playoffs five times while compiling an overall record of 155-84-5 while making stops along the way at William Jewell College and the University of St. Thomas. Chuck King took over the reigns of the Cumberland football program in 2002 and has a two-year record of 12-7 and his 2003 team is on the brink of an NAIA playoff bid and a conference title. Coach King is keenly aware that student athletes look for something more: "The student doesn’t care how much you know until you show him how much you care." Lambuth employs a very productive passing attack engineered by senior quarterback Jonathan Finch with 1,836 yards and 15 touchdowns completing 122-of-232 pass attempts. Leading receiver Matt Davenport has pulled down 62 passes for 1,021 yards and 10 scores. The Eagles running attack is paced by sophomore running back Kevin Haynes with 244 carries for 1,235 yards with 10 TDs while also pulling in 10 passes for 82 yards and one more score. The defense for Lambuth is led by senior linebacker Bingham Tuisamatatele with an impressive 124 tackles, including 13 for losses with 3.5 sacks. On the defensive line junior end Andrew Toler holds court with 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss with 7.5 sacks, one interception, one pass deflection and three fumble recoveries. The Eagles have two swift defensive backs with junior Bobby Antee recording 78 hits, four interceptions, five pass breakups, three fumble recoveries, two forced fumbles while he also returns punts and kickoffs. Sophomore Julius “Doc” Robertson leads the team with nine interceptions including 100 return yards. Cumberland relies on their ground attach (339.0 yards per game, while gaining 69.4 yards passing per game). That’s even more than D-III Augustana compromises their passing attack in place of more rushing with the ball, and that’s saying something! Heading this ravaging ground attack is tailback Darrion Gee with 127 carries for 812 yards and five TDs. Fullback David Bejar has picked up 706 yards on the ground with five score on 118 carries. The Patriots’ quarterback Matt Sims spends most of his time delivering the ball to his running backs, but has completed 34-of-85 passes for 560 yards and four touchdowns. When Sims does pass the ball it will more-than-likely go to Nathan Goodpaster who has 19 catches for 358 yards and four touchdowns. Cumberland’s crippling defense is shouldered by linebacker Bo Buchanan with 110 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, one interception, four pass blocks, three fumble recoveries and one forced fumble. Also outside linebacker Frank Shope has picked up 62 tackles, 14 for losses, 5.5 sacks, one interception and two pass deflections. Serving at a defensive back slot is Dustin Huffaker with 30 hits, four interceptions and eight pass breakups. My Observations: For Lambuth: Tuisamatatele and Toler will be prodded to penetrate through the Cumberland line to get pressure on the Cumberland quarterback, especially before he can make a clean delivery of the ball to one of his running backs. Haynes strong legs will be counted on to get though the rigid Cumberland defensive line. For Cumberland. Gee and Bejar will need to be aggressive crashing through Lambuth’s defensive line. Sims needs to sneak a few passes over the swift, grabbing hands of Lambuth’s defensive back Julius Robertson. Players to Watch: For Lambuth you need to watch the transition of the ball from the hands of quarterback Jonathan Finch to his experienced wide receiver Matt Davenport. I think the key to a Lambuth victory could very well be their running back Kevin Haynes. On defense watch the great coverage that “Doc” Robertson puts on the Cumberland receivers. For Cumberland: Keep your eye on the forceful rushing of Gee and Bejar. Bo Buchanan crashing his way through the Lambuth defensive line. In a very close contest I think Lambuth will pull the rabbit out of the hat at home and prevail 26-24.

Other significant games will be posted as time permits.